Lunardi: Hogs not likely to move up

Just appeared on SEC Now. He says Hogs might move up IF Okie Lite gets blown out by Texass AND Tiger High beats Houston. But as a practical matter, we’re staying at 3. He also says Bama can’t move up to a 1.

I’m guessing scenario where Bama looses today and we win SECT results in us moving up to 2 line in their place

I think that’s highly unlikely. Bama is far enough ahead of us that they’ll stay up even in that scenario. But they’re not close enough to Illinois to pass them.

Very few wins over top 20 teams by SEC teams. The Hogs had a great opportunity for winning one of those “difference” games in Stillwater, but blew it in the last 2 minutes. Contra to that, OSU just won a “difference” game versus Baylor. To this point, the Hogs best difference game was a home win versus Bama, who crushed us in Tuscaloosa. By the time the Hogs beat Missouri, they were no longer a top 20 team. Of course, we had one of the worst non-conference schedules that was possible.

The Hogs have a great SEC win streak going, but those were not wins against a lot of top 20 teams. Big losses versus Missouri, at home, Tennessee, Bama and LSU plague the Hogs.

Really, there’s not a huge difference between a 2 and a 3. As a 3 we’d play a 14 and a 6, probably; a 2 plays 15 and 7. Then in the Sweet 16 we play the 2 (or the 3). Odds are we get to the second weekend, which has been our goal for 25 years, and then we’re playing with house money from there.

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I wasn’t making a real point about being a 2 versus a 3, just noting that OSU is building respect – and suggesting the answer to “why”.

Here is Lunardi’s latest projection, which came out when the Tennessee-Alabama game started:

I understand your point and largely agree. I’m just noting that as a practical matter it doesn’t make much difference. Being a 2 or a 3 means you don’t see the 1 until the Elite Eight. Same if you’re a 6 or 7, but your second round game is a lot harder. Being a 4, 5, 8 or 9 sucks,

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