Lunardi has moved the Hogs to a 6 seed

ESPN2 just showed the Hogs as a 6 seed in Joe’s latest rankings.

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I think our ceiling is probably a 5 or 4 seed, but who knows? Just keep winning!

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I am not so sure…we seem to be replicating what last year’s team did…and we all know how high our seed wound up being. Of course we have a very tough schedule ahead…but if we indeed keep winning…who knows…

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Our schedule sets up very good for us to improve our seed dramatically. It also sets up very well to fall. But we have a real opportunity in front of us.

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Opportunity abounds, in shark infested waters.
In chess you seek complications, in options you seek volatility.
In competition you have to love the tussle.

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One extra day of rest will help with Saturday’s tussle.

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Very poetic, or as Coach Richardson always said, “the only way to beat pressure is to love it.”

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If we were to run the table in the regular season, I’m thinking 2 seed. That would be Tennessee twice, Kentucky, Auburn, LSU twice, Florida and Bama in the win column, and a 26-5 record. And OU may fall out of the Q1 loss column soon. So may A&M. That would be 8-1 in Q1, 8-3 if OU and TAM stay up. That would also be a 16-game winning streak.

Are we gonna run the table? Probably not. But that’s the ceiling.

Lunardi’s 2 seeds now are Kansas (4 losses now), Dook (4 losses), Kentucky (4 losses and we would have beaten them) and Bayluh (also 4). Somebody in that bunch would have 6 losses by March 5, maybe several of them.

Q1 records as of now in that group: Kentucky is 5-4, Baylor is 8-3, Kansas is 7-3, Dook is 5-1 and doesn’t have a single Q1 opponent remaining. Kansas has 4 left, Kentucky has 5, Baylor has 5.

I agree. At the same time, there’s not one guaranteed W remaining (not that any really ever are but pretty tough down the stretch). I’m optimistic we could go win 4 and that should hold us in at a 7, maybe higher depending on SECT. The SECT seems to move the needle one way or the other for us.

I agree. Lots of Q1 games left, including two or three at home. I think the ceiling could be a 2 or 3 seed, but it would almost take winning out to achieve that.

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Going a step further, if winning out means through the SEC Tourney, it could mean a 1 seed. The tourney would have to work out so that we were playing either Auburn or KY (already a 1 seed), so they could pencil the winner as the one seed and the loser as a 2 seed (or both as 1 seeds). That’s usually the only way a Sunday game could affect the final seeding.

1 seed, IMO, is out of reach. Complete table run would be 29-5 which is darn good. But are we going to pass Gonzaga, Arizona, Purdue or Auburn? I don’t think so. Worst record there is 21-3 (Purdue).

I hate to say this, but I would much rather win all of our home games, try to steal a couple on the road, and be one and done in the SECT. Kinda like I wish baseball wouldn’t have won in Hoover. Too much wear and tear for not much of a reward. If we are relying on winning games in the SECT, something has gone horribly wrong.

Yes, to Aub, since we would be 2-0 vs them.

Yeah we’d be 2-0 vs them, but they might be 30-3.

I don’t believe that would matter, as we would be on a 19 game winning streak. Remember, my scenario was we had to beat either KY or Aub, and that team had to be a #1 seed going into the Championship game. It would also be likely, we would have had to beat both on the way to the championship.

The odds of all that happening are obviously pretty miniscule. This thread was about our absolute ceiling.

I don’t disagree with that. Just pointing that our absolute ceiling top seed might be a #1 seed. Also though, a #1 seed almost assures you of making the Sweet sixteen playing a 16 and an 8 seed. You would be completely rested by then. The trade off though, is if you get a really hot 8 seed you might be susceptible to an upset with a tired team.

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Love your optimism regardless, Harley. Go Hogs!

Oh, I certainly don’t expect that to happen. If we could be guaranteed a 4 or 5 seed, I’d take that in a heartbeat.

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Before last year’s tournament, somebody went back and figured out the odds. A 1 seed has an 85.7% chance of making the second weekend. A 2 seed is 63.6%. IIRC, two of the four 2 seeds advanced last year (ORU took care of the Suckeyes and Oregon bounced Iowa). A 3 seed is 52.9%.

Elite Eight chances: 69.3% for a 1 seed, 45.7% for a 2, 25.7% for a 3.