Latest Bracketology

Lunardi just released his latest bracketology today and has us as an 11 seed. We were projected as an 8 seed before the Miss. St. game. We went from firmly in the field to a bubble team now, which means the margin for error really gets thin. A loss to Missouri at home, would mean we would need to be near perfect the remaining year to still make it.

The next 5 games are all winnable games, every team upcoming has been struggling. I think we probably need to win 4 out of next 5 to get out of bubble status, 3 out of 5 probably keeps us on the bubble, anything less than that knocks us out. And any scenario with a loss to Mizzou at home with their 251 RPI knocks us out. The Mizzou game is a must win to keep any tournament chances alive. … acketology

It would take at least two road wins to go 4-1 over the next five games.

Afraid that we have dug a fairly good hole for ourselves.

So hopeful we can dig our way out.

Yea it would, it’s a tough task but possible. The next 3 road games… Texas A&M lost 3 of last 4, Vandy lost it’s last 2 games, OK. State lost it’s last 4. Now I know we’ve lost 3 of 4 as well, but I think we’re a better team than Vandy and Ok. State. TAM they have more talent, but have been underachieving all year. And the next 2 homes games are against arguably 2 of the worst teams in conference.

I would say we win 3 out of next 5, and I’ll stay optimistic for 4 out of 5.

I would disagree that we are better than Vandy. I think they are a better team than Miss State and we will be playing them on the road. And they played KY very tough. Plus they have good 3 point shooters and Lord knows we do not defend the 3 well. I think the only sure wins out of the next 5 are Missouri and LSU with OSU a tossup. Going to be tough sledding the rest of the way if we don’t defend better.

We’ll have to agree to disagree on that. Vandy has lost 8 games already, with a home loss to Bucknell. Their best win is Chattanooga at home, who has a 78 RPI. We currently have 3 wins that are better than that. They did play Kentucky well, but there will be some other teams that play them well at home too. We played Kentucky well at Rupp for a half. You have to think everybody is playing Ketucky like it’s a championship game, Kentucky will get everyone’s best shot. Can’t really judge how good/bad a team is by how many points they lose to Kentucky, gotta look at the entire body of work.

Don’t take a linear approach to looking at Vanderbilt. They have a new coach with a new system. They have looked different/better in their past five games. Vandy’s roster has too many limitations for them to have a lot of upside potential this season. They can win some games with Fisher-Davis, Kornet and LaChance, though.

Vandy could not stop Briscoe and Fox, and they fouled Adebayo a ton. But they muzzled Kentucky’s outside shooting and offensive rebounding, plus they only turned it over seven times in a high-tempo game. The Cats never led by more than 9, and that was in the first three minutes of the game.

It is hard to imagine UK losing a game to anyone in the SEC except maybe Florida or South Carolina, because their guards are so hard to stop one on one. Even if the Cats slop around most of the game, they can score anytime they want in those last possessions, unless you have some real defensive beasts.

we will be on bubble watch until we get our first quality win of the year. 4 out of the next five would keep us in the picture. possibly a win at ok st could be that quality win and if course winning at Florida could give us a major bump. but we have to take it one game at a time at this point. realistically we just have to ask how many conference losses will knock us out of sec top 4 contention. currently we are a long ways from the top four. that means no margin for error period. even if we go 4-1 in the next five that is no guarantee to get us in top 4 of conference. all the talk about this team being better means nothing, all the critics coming out of the woodwork reveling in the msst loss means nothing, all that matters now is winning.

Yea i agree we’re probably on bubble watch for a while. But, I’m still thinking if we add 2 more quality road game wins to our resume in the next few games, it’ll take us off it for a while and give us a little bit of breathing room like we had before Miss. St game.

Also, I wouldn’t worry about conference standings that much, a top 4 conference finish is not a requirement by the committee. They aren’t going to take the top 4 seeded teams in the conference, they are going to take the teams with the best resumes. They look at RPI and quality wins more than anything, and that’s also why doing well in the non-conference is so important. For example Miss St. can probably win 12 games in conference and still not make the tournament, because they had 3 bad losses in non-conference and their SOS is really weak. Us on the other hand, if we win 12 conference games that probably puts us firmly in the tournament barring a really bad loss in there somewhere.

I’ll take 12-6 all day.

In CBS latest bracketology that just came out today, Jerry Palm has us an 11 seed, we are the first team in the last 4 in. 3 of our non-conference opponents we have wins over are in this bracket as well (UT-Arlington, North Dakota St. Mt. St. Marys)

Also, our non-conference opponents had a good night last night, our RPI jumped from 44 to 36 today.

I would like to be given a sliver of optimism over the next week. My better senses tells me the team will probably play about .500 ball over the next 15 games. Unlike football where the struggling teams look for change, this basketball program returns with the same old problems year after year and with no clue what to do about it.

Yes it looks like we have all our goals still within reach. Missouri is the only bad rpi team left on our schedule. Let’s hope a&m can take care of the mighty misst bulldogs tomorrow and set up an opportunity for us to get a quality win in college station. i like our record vs texas teams this year. if we can win these next two games we might just get hot and roll into south carolina for a huge matchup. yes we got everything in front of us still. maybe a kick in the butt is what we needed. now all we got to do is win!

Yea, everything is still within reach. Like you said, Mizzou is really the only team left on the schedule with a bad RPI. I know the Mississippi St vs Texas AM game is one of the games I’m most looking forward to watching this weekend, it will be better for our RPI if Texas A&M wins, because we play them twice, however I’m kinda rooting for Miss. St. to win and not give Texas A&M any momentum, before the LSU game they were really struggling and lost 3 straight, I think it would be better for us to catch the Texas A&M that’s struggling rather than them when they are starting to figure things out. But for RPI purposes, you are correct we should root for Texas A&M to win.

Looks like we moved up 1 seed in both CBS and ESPN brackets. We’re now a 10 seed on both after the weekend games. … acketology a 10 seed. Against Virginia Tech. Presumably we won’t lead 24-0 at halftime this time.

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once again another must win/ biggest game of the year in my mind. We can start to kiss an at large bid good bye if we lose. Or we can start to get on a roll with this road win.

We are running out of time already since we fell behind out of the gates, I really hope we can stack some Ws going into South Carolina and Florida in a few weeks.

Another road win would be big for our confidence. Big opportunity. I hope Moses eats his wheaties. And everybody hates the aggies

Our three conference losses are to teams with a combined SEC mark of 13-1, meaning 10-1 when not playing us. We go to Florida March 1, and are through with MSU and UK. If we just beat the teams currently below us in the standings, split with Vandy (which is tied with us now) and win home games with Bama and Georgia, that would put us at 12-6. Split Bama and Georgia, 11-7.

Not to be a downer, but I see A&M as beating us by 15 points on rebounding alone and worse if they cut down on their turnover average! Vandy will win by 20 plus at home if we dont shut down their 3s and if we play the same OK ST team that stayed neck and neck with lead changes into the last two minutes AT KANSAS then that one can get ugly quick too for us! What I saw out of our play against Missouri scares the hell out of me with those games as well as the Florida rematch, Bamma, Georgia, and South Carolina and yep you can add Bruce Pearl and Auburn to that list too!!! I believe we can be a good team, but still see a team that lays off at times(gets silly with play) when they get a 6 to 8 point lead! I also feel we kill a team playing in sync with mass subs only to take runs and turn them the other way TOOOOO MANY times and as Ive said before, why, because many times we look like the team more tired at the end! Hope they put it all together starting tonight!!!

I agree with you Swine. We have played a pretty stout early SEC schedule that is giving us false readings. I have posted numerous times that we need to reverse the lost possessions from rebounding and Moses’s turnovers. I also have posted multiple times that our trapping defense is used too much when we don’t have the speed to make it work. Our trapping defense without speed is leaving somebody open all the time or leaving the basket unattended and losing rebounds.