The ESPN metric says we have a 92% chance of beating ORU (17 point favorite). Then we have a 30% chance of making the Final Four, 11.9% chance of reaching the NCG and 3.9% chance of winning it.
The Hogs have the sixth best chance of winning it all according to BPI. Gonzaga remains the tournament favorite: 82.5% chance of beating Creighton, 66.8% chance of the FF, 49.0% chance of reaching the NCG and 32% chance of winning it. Houston somehow is #2, which reflects their draw in the regional, and Baylor is #3. Then Michigan, Bama and us.