It's time to unveil the much anticipated

Yeah, if you are looking for a high odds sports bet in Vegas, you should look at the money line. You can sure get great odds betting the Hogs to beat Bama straight up.

I very seldom bet the over/under wins bet. That bet is on the table for a long time and Vegas can adjust it many times to make sure overall they are going to make money on the “vig”. The only time I bet over/under is if feel real strongly that they are wrong more than 1 win.

They don’t have a lot of time to adjust the line/odds on a money line bet on a single game.

FWIW…for those that don’t like/trust my percentages (which is fine, by the way…this is an exercise where most of us will disagree with each other on some of the games), here is another take from a different source…ESPN’s FPI ratings.

Interestingly, at this juncture (if you reference this same link during the season, the percentages will be updated week to week), the bottom line prediction is almost exactly the same (6.085 wins) as mine in the OP (6.15)…

You may be right…but…

It’s our first game of the season, and first games are notoriously unpredictable

We’re starting a new QB who has just one start under his belt…hope for the best but would feel better - first game or not - if we had a veteran, proven QB under center.

Rice beat an undefeated and top 20 Marshall (they finished the season 7-1) 20-0 last season.

Rice’s QB is the brother of Christian McCaffrey, the All-America at Stanford a few years ago (and now starring in the NFL).

Just saying that’s enough “doubt” to keep me from going above the 70% that I posted. Personally, I’ll be satisfied with a win and then getting things “corrected” for the game with Texas the next week.

But, to each his own.

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Well, Wally says 7 wins. He’s always under, so now I’m thinking 8 for no other reason.

As an aside, Wiz, how do you inject synergy into your factors? If our key guys stay healthy, I think we may surprise.

I don’t. It’s my gut feel.

At some point in the pre-season, you feel how you feel about a team; then you make your picks. OF COURSE, we will all know more about them after they’ve played a couple of games and we see how some of these things play out. But there are too many “what if” scenarios to play ALL of the permutations out and attach probabilities to each, then to average all of those scenarios out.

It would be waaaay too much effort for too little return to do that.

Nope…an educated “gut feeling” is what a guy like me uses.

Synergy?? Nah.

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UPDATE

After the first two results of the season, plugging in the current ESPN FPI % chance to win the remaining games on our schedule, we arrive at a current projection of 7.3 wins (the 2 already in the bank, plus 5.3 of our remaining 10 games).

That’s not a bad place to be. If chalk holds, we’ll get the 7 wins the most optimistic, yet realistic among us hoped or the 8 wins hardly any of us dared hope. Now with the two wins behind us, I feel pretty good about the 7-8 win scenario. We still need to stay healthy.

Yup. We’re deeper than we’ve been in a while, but still…

I’m calling 8+ pre-bowl. Mark it.

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From your lips to Gods ears!

:smile:

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