“Wiz projects the 2021 Season” prediction!
Well…I know these predictions aren’t really “much anticipated” by anyone else. But doing them each year does get me “officially” fired up for Football.
Those of you who have suffered through my posts over the years are familiar with my simple, but statistically sound and usually pretty accurate method of projecting the number of wins before the season. I just look at who they are playing, where they are playing and when (schedule sequence DOES make a difference), then take of my Hog-colored glasses and give my best effort to objectively apply a number between 0 and 1 that represents the percentage that Arkansas will prevail in the game. Or, the way I try to look at it, if they played the opponent 100 times under similar circumstances, how many of those games would Arkansas win? Then, I total up the percentages and the total is the projected number of wins.
There are a couple of “rules of thumb” that I use. For one thing, NO game is EVER 0 or 100. That is to say, even the most prohibitive of favorites can and sometimes do lose, even if under suspect circumstances. And no fans know that more than Arkansas fans. In recent years, I’ve seen our fans copy this style and attach 100% win chances to games such as Toledo, North Texas, San Jose State and Western Kentucky. No more need be said about that.
In general, the range of probabilities in SEC games ranges from 20% to 80%. There are rare exceptions…but in almost all cases, I just don’t see an SEC team winning more than 80 of 100 possible games played between 2 teams.
Also, the scale slides up or down depending on whether the game is at home or on the road - again, Schedules matter. In general, if someone has a 40% chance of winning on a neutral field against a given opponent, I’d give them 30% on the road, and 50% at home. Clearly, these numbers are somewhat arbitrary…the real difference might be +/- 8.6% or whatever. But for this process, it works fine. In fact, being 5 or 10% off on a given game doesn’t really move the needle significantly, and such “errors” tend to balance each other out.
Having said all of that, here are the predictions:
Rice 70% (i.e. .70)
GA SO 90%
@ GA 25%
@ Ole Miss 40%
Total wins in regular season: 6.15 wins
So…6-6. About what my “eyeball analysis” would project, so it makes sense to me.
For the record, my formula projected 3.15 wins last year (i.e., 3-7 record), but I won’t claim a bullseye because we all know the Auburn game was a win in every sense other than the official record book.
As I always say in the annual posts, “try it yourself” but if you do, just be honest and TRY to be objective. Otherwise, what you get will be worthless.