The numbers suggest it’s pretty random, and the degree to which it can be predicted relies a lot on game situations – get the lead, and force the other team to pass, particularly on third and long (sounds like a description of Alabama football). The effect of Miami’s “turnover chain” may have been on the psychology of the opposing quarterback.
<LINK_TEXT text=“http://www.espn.com/college-football/st … -turnovers”>http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24142400/coaches-their-everlasting-quest-coach-turnovers</LINK_TEXT>
What I wrote in the first paragraph reminds me, actually, of what OH, or Jim Bailey, wrote in the first edition of “The Razorbacks,” their history of Hog football. Discussing the 1968 team, which went 10-1, they talked about risk-taking by opponents was at an all-time high that season, and the Hogs feasted on making them pay for taking those risks, particularly on interceptions by guys like Gary Adams and Jerry Moore. Taking those risks when they’re trailing and facing third and long, no doubt.