Interesting breakdown of historically who can win the big dance

Teams to eliminate:

  • Teams with losing record in conference play.
  • Teams that suffered 5 game losing streaks during the season.
  • Teams that lost their conference tournament opener.
  • Teams never ranked in the AP poll during the season.
  • Teams seeded 9-16 have never won the NCAA.
  • Teams with at least 12 losses.
  • 34 of the last 38 champs were 3 seeds or higher.
    – No. 4 (Arizona in 1997),
    – No. 6 (Kansas, 1988),
    – No. 7 (Connecticut, 2014),
    – No. 8 (villanova, 1985)

That leaves approx 10 teams that meet the historic qualities to win the tournament:

  • Alabama
  • Houston
  • Kansas
  • Purdue
  • UCLA
  • Texas
  • Arizona
  • Marquette
  • Gonzaga
  • Xavier

Might be interesting to fill out your brackets backwards and then work out how to get there and see how it does.

Food for thought.

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Interesting data. I think this quote is more telling. If you are ranked that high , then your body of work has weathered the year pretty well.

saw that at halftime of the West Virginia/Maryland game too…it went by kind of fast so i didnt catch all of the details but i thougt NC State or UNC won the title 1 time with about 12 losses

Villanova had the worst record of any NCAA champion, going 25-10 in 1985. NC State went 26-10 in 1983.

And Nova was an 8 seed.

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