I decided to look into the numbers for our games under CBB against Power 5 opponents, including non conference and bowl games. This isn’t pretty.
2013 against Power 5 schools:
We scored 159 points (135 in SEC play) v 331 for our opponents (303 in SEC play) = 36.8 v 17.7 for the opponents
If you do just the SEC, we were outscored 37.9 to 16.9
2014 against Power 5 schools:
We scored 245 points (165 in SEC play) v 212 for our opponents (177 in SEC play) = 24.5 v 21.2 in our favor
However, if we do just the SEC, we were outscored 22.1 to 20.6 and this was the year we pitched B2B shut outs
2015 against Power 5 schools:
We scored 330 points (261 in SEC play) v 299 for our opponents (241 in SEC play) = 33.0 v 29.9 in our favor
And we did outscore our SEC opponents 32.6 to 30.1 that year. Obviously the program was trending the right way, though losses to Toledo and Texas Tech were cautionary tales.
2016 against Power 5 schools: — the ship starts taking on water
We scored 279 points (214 in SEC play) v 371 for our opponents (298 in SEC play) = 37.1 v 27.9 for the opponents
It was worse in SEC play last year. We got outscored 37.3 v 26.8 per game
2017 thus far v Power 5 schools:
We have scored 72 points (65 in SEC play) v 126 for our opponents (98 in SEC play) = 42 v 24 for the opponents
And in SEC play thus far we have been outscored 49 to 32.5 per game and we have yet to face our two toughest opponents.
If I have done my math correctly, since CBB took over, we are being outscored 31.9 to 25.8 in Power 5 games, and 32.9 to 24.7 in SEC games. And it is trending the wrong way.