In State Recruiting in the SEC

I stole this from another board, but it has some interesting information concerning the recruiting challenge for the Hogs. Not a big surprise, but pretty good research.

For my purposes, I’m calling a blue-chip prospect a 4 or 5 star player, as according to 247’s rating.

Number of prospects over the last three recruiting classes:
[State: 2017, 2016, 2015 = TOTAL (Avg. Per Year)]
AL: 14, 9, 11 = 34 (11.33)
MS: 6, 10, 11 = 27 (9)
LA: 10, 19, 15 = 44 (14.67)
GA: 30, 27, 31 = 88 (29.33)
TX: 40, 46, 50 = 136 (45.33)
AR: 3, 3, 6 = 12 (4)
MO: 4, 3, 4 = 11 (3.67)
SC: 4, 6, 6, = 16 (5.33)
FL: 38, 43, 46 (42.33)
TN: 13, 9, 11 = 33 (11)
KY: 1, 3, 2 = 6 (2)

Now, let’s pretend that those prospects more-or-less get distributed among each state’s power 5 schools. Obviously this isn’t the case, but we need to normalize those numbers by how many schools in the state are competing for these prospects.
Number of P5 schools in each state: 2 in AL, 2 in MS, 1 in LA, 2 in GA, 5 in TX, 1 in AR, 1 in MO, 2 in SC, 3 in FL, 2 in TN, 2 in KY

So how many of those prospects per year could be shared by each P5 school?
Number of 4/5* prospects per year per P5 school:
LA: 14.67
GA: 14.67
FL: 14.11
TX: 9.06
AL: 5.67
TN: 5.5
MS: 4.5
AR: 4
MO: 3.67
SC: 2.67
KY: 1

LSU has an enormous advantage because they’re the only P5 school in the state. One could argue that UGA has it even better, seeing that Georgia Tech is absolutely not competing (usually) for top recruits with UGA. They get the lion’s share of a talent-rich state.


It sure shows what a good job of recruiting is done by Saban. He can grab players from anywhere. I’m ready for him to retire. :smiley:

Really nice breakdown.

Goes to show this “we are at a recruiting disadvantage” is a bunch of crap excuses. A great recruiter along with wins, will bring players to any school, any where. Plus Fayetteville is a fantastic place and all recruits usually say so once they get there and their perception of Arkansas changes.

I am glad to see we are making more of an effort in Texas, but still think we are getting several guys who may not ever develop into an SEC player. Hope to see it continue to build, I like CBB, but am still not sold he is the answer. He’s definitely not a knock out coach, or recruiter, but maybe he can be a coach that makes great hires that are, we will see.

Four schools have at least twice as many 4 & 5 star recruits as we do. Bama & Auburn are Bama & Auburn. Miss. schools are schools we should content with every year as well as those below us. Tenn. school get most of the recruits vs. Vandy. That puts us in the middle of the pack in this hypothetical example. From my point of view, we are at a big disadvantage when it comes to home grown 4 & 5 recruits. We just don’t have the population base. Of course, this is interesting research that deals with averages. Honestly, how does our reputation and football history stack up against Bama, Auburn, Tenn, LSU, Texas A & M, Florida, Georgia?. Should we have good years, contend for the West Title, win the SEC, etc. Of course we should. I am a old (74) Hog fan that was born, raised, worked, and retired in Arkansas. I have a MBA and PHD from U of A. I taught there for 3 years. I am a homer, over the hill, dyed in the wool fan. I hope I am not making excuses for CB. Always remember that these are my views. You have yours. All of us see things from our own view point. I think my view point is correct and you think yours is. That is OK.

You are right in that once the recruit gets to Fayetteville, he loves it. But it is a challenge to get him there, don’t you agree?

Glenn Beal’s quote about Fayetteville sounded like he expected to see Arkansas students having to use outhouses. That’s a stereotype that many people have. I heard a preacher from another state say “I know Arkansas is backwoods” as if that is true. I know the reputation and it’s based partially on past (maybe some present) truth. To get a recruit to campus–where he can be blown away by the football facilities, not just the “facilities”–is a major challenge and often cannot be overcome when dealing with the elite players.

Absolutely, especially when we aren’t winning.

If the airport was more accessible that would also greatly help. I’m sure it will eventually be, considering the growth in NWA.