Hogs open as 2 TD favorite over Liberty

To be honest, that surprises me. I figured we’d be favored by 4 to 6 points, based mostly…I guess…on the recent BYU results for both teams.

Seen some lines at 13.5…this one is 14…

I’m really surprised it’s that large a spread. Hope it’s accurate. Every remaining game will be tough. Even MU looked good yesterday.

Missouri has a good defense. But our offense should be able to open the running game up by completing some passes. They did play Georgia a close game. Anything is possible.
As for Liberty you have to show up ready to play and when you have chances to out your foot down and burry your opponent get the job done.
Score early and often.

Let me say again… lines open not so much based on what the score will be, but what the bookmakers feel will get people betting money 50/50 for and against. That’s why they constantly change right up until game time… based on the amount of money bet for or against they adjust the odds to try and keep it 50/50 that way they - the bookmakers - can’t lose and its a big win for them.

I’m aware of that, but it reflects hoe they think the public will view the game. I’m surprised the spread is that large and I hope it’s accurate

Moreover, I discovered in the 90’s that the Sagarin ratings - which have NOTHING to do with Vegas, often are very, very close to what you will be listed by various casinos - consistently. And Sagarin also favors us by about 14 points (when you add in the home field advantage points).

https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2022-2/college-football-team-ratings-2022/

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So a 23 ranked Liberty is a two TD underdog to an unranked Arkansas. Which is out of touch with reality, the bettors or the polls?

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The polls. Liberty (7-1) has played one ranked team and lost a close game. They struggled and barely beat Gardner-Webb recently. We both beat BYU handily, but we were on the road and they were at home. If we were playing at Liberty, we would be only a 6 or 7 point favorite.

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I’m not surprised.

Players will be pumped to play at home. We haven’t had a home game in a month.

It’s a joke that Liberty is even ranked. They are not one of the best 25 teams in the country.

They beat:
Garner-Webb by one point.
Beat a terrible Southern Miss team by 2 points and had to go to 4 OT’s to beat them.
Barely beat Akron and UAB.

We will win by 17-21 points

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Sounds right…but, I think many are minimizing Liberty’s three road wins. That’s not easy on anyone’s schedule thus far.

If the Hogs start solid, it’ll be a 3 TD margin…otherwise, a nailbiter.

It the hogs take care of the pumpkin there’s should be some breathing room well before halftime.

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I’m not surprised either. We are healthy and at home for this game compared to playing BYU.

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