Hogs now Warren Nolan's CWS favorite

43% chance to win it all in his CWS simulation
Molester U is second at 26%. Moo U 15%. Florida only 9%, 7% for TTU.

What I find interesting is that while they give MSU a much better chance of emerging from their bracket (56.4% to 43.6%) than Oregon State, OSU still is given almost twice as much chance of winning the entire Tournament as MSU is. That means Nolan thinks OSU has about twice (or more) the chance to prevail against us (or whoever comes out of our bracket) as they do MSU.

Probably a reasonable expectation, but still interesting.

Well, one thing that happens is that if OSU emerges they’re no longer a game behind. My guess is that MSU gets the edge simply because they only have to win once. If OSU gets to the finals it’s back to 2 of 3 for everyone. At least that’s my guess on how they get to that conclusion.

Yes, but OSU is starting in a hole . . . the event of “winning the CWS” is a combination of, first, (A) emerging out of your side of the bracket. THEN, if you do that, it’s also (B) winning the best of 3 series against whoever emerges from the other side of the bracket. You’ve got to do BOTH of those things to win the Trophy.

So MSU starts with a significant advantage - 56% to 44% - to get that first thing (A) done; this is, obviously, because MSU needs to only win one game, while OSU must win two without another loss. But if MSU’s probability of doing BOTH things (A and B) is only 15%, compared to 26% for OSU, that means that IF MSU advances to the Finals, the simulator gives them just a 27% chance in the best of 3 series; if OSU can get there, they have a projected a 60% chance of winning it all.

Similarly, if we do advance to the final, according to these numbers, we should have a 58% chance of winning the title. The numbers don’t add up to 100% because they are all conditional at this point; it’s not just us and them quite yet.

Keep in mind, this is based on where we are NOW. The numbers will change as the two teams are determined.

Its just numbers. We are going to stomp a mudhole and walk it dry