Hogs/Horns early early line

Hogs + 3.5 (-105) - Draft Kings only

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That means UT favored by 3.5, correct? Shocked it is not higher. I hate to say it, but I would take that bet (bet on UT) if I was willing to bet against the Hogs (Which I am not)

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That’s a closer line than I expected. I figured it be Tex by somewhere between 7-12 points.

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Yes. But, keep in mind, it could be a couple points different in either direction when the line opens on the Vegas strip later today.

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I believe TX looked about like the Hogs in the first half of their game. That might be why the number is a little lower than most of us expected.

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True, they were playing the #23 team in the country while we were playing #123.

Truth Vegas is basically calling it straight up either way

Let’s see how the betting line progresses by Thursday

Yes. Without a doubt, we can’t have 13 penalties for 120 yards and beat TX. Hopefully, Sam, the DC, and OC will clean that up. If not, then we will get embarrassed by the final score.

However, one thing I loved that I saw yesterday, was the big play capabilities in our running game. Smith is a solid SEC runner and both KJ and Rocket Sanders have big play written all over them. KJ does need to clean up his overthrows in the short passes, but I think that was probably nerves in the first game.

If the coaches can clean up the mistakes, we should give the Horns all they want Saturday, with a good chance of winning the game.

Texas was -3 to -3.5 before either team played yesterday, so it hasn’t changed because of yesterday’s games. But, let’s see what happens during the week–injuries, money flow, that sort of thing.

The Vegas line is never, ever, about who they think will win and by how much. It is 100%
an attempt to get exactly half the bettors to bet on each team giving the house max profit.
5% of the total wagers.


Circa opened Texas by 6. I’m thinking it moves up to 7 at least.

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I agree…money is gonna pour in for Texass. Anyone that saw KJ throw is gonna conclude that he can’t. Of course, we all assume yesterday was an anomaly, that his performance against Mizzou is a better predictor, and that our coaches know that.

While true, the line is, by definition, a reflection of what the betting public thinks. To get 50% on each side, the line has to be right at what the betting public thinks.

Plus, if there is a team getting a lot of bets, a given house will “lay off” bets to try to get to that 50%. For instance at one time Notre Dame vs. USC was a huge game and houses would pass bets bet ween the heavy regions to balance tthe betting. And when the line changes much, it is a result of heavy betting on one team. I have read that a large change in the line is generally bad for the houses.

Okay, the afternoon changes are now happening with a few more matching Circa’s -6 for Texas. So, the results from yesterday’s games are beginning to factor into the spread.

I’m thinking Texas’s win over a 23-ranked team was more impressive to bettors than ours over an unrated Rice. However, it’s hard to make well-informed decisions after just one game.

Good point, it’s hard to go by 1 game especially the 1st game. Maybe our Hogs were too consumed w the Texas game and took Rice for granted. We’ll know more in a week.

I noticed Jeff Sagarin had La-La rated 55th or something before yesterday’s game. Slightly better than us but not much. I think people got carried away by what they did in the Scum Belt last year, but it is still the Scum Belt.

Draft Kings also has Texas -6. Over under is 58.5; that seems low to me.

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