I’ve been thinking about this for the past week or so. At first - maybe 3 weeks ago when this thing was just beginning to get some traction - it didn’t enter my mind. But as I’ve seen all these reports and projections, models of “the curve” and thoughts that we’re likely to have some sort of “rebound” next fall/winter, I just don’t know HOW the powers that be can condone any activity that draws 10’s of thousands of people together like that.
The optics would be terrible. Someone IS going to get the virus in November and die. Never-mind that people are going to get sick and die in November anyhow (virus or no). And there would be a terrible backlash against sports for promoting crowds. This would become yet another divisive wedge in our society, and the last thing we need is for huge anti-sports demonstrations to pop up. For some of us, sports is most of the entertainment we have. I’d hate it if the season were canceled, but I’d hate it more if they played and it was a catalyst for a resurgence in the virus.
Some basic biology here. Not a doctor, but have worked with bacteria, fungi, and viruses my whole, long career (which started at the UofA as a Freshman studying the amino acids from a fungal pathogen). This virus is not going away. We will all be exposed at some time. Will that be before of after we have learned to live and deal with it and that will happen. That does not mean we should run headlong into something until science and biology has time to adapt.
In all populations, nature has a way of controlling populations. This thing evolved in an area of very dense population. It was not strong enough to have a great effect on that population, but nature keeps on trying to balance itself. You see it all across nature. Look at the pine bark beetle in the Western Mountains. Everyone says how horrible. No, it is natures way of thinning the overgrowth of Lodge
Pole Pines. It makes for a more balanced and healthy forest.
Humans are not immune to the same dynamics. We do often have the ability to make changes that help us adapt and overcome, sometimes.
I am 72 so I gather am at greater risk than some, but I still know that the way for humans to overcome this is to eventually allow natural immunity (hopefully helped by our science), both heard and individual develop. In that respect, we are no different than any other species.
This virus is not going away in 2 - 8 weeks. We are all eventually going to become exposed. It is also a good bet that this virus will continually evolve just like the influenza virus. Hopefully, we can get ahead of it eventually with vaccines as we do with influenza.
Bottom line is we are going to have to learn to live with this virus and its off springs from now on. Staying locked in our houses will not change that, but we must be smart about when we come out. That is not my call, but I do know I will have to face this thing one day as will you all.
Wow, not sure where all of that came from especially on a sports board, but it does affect sports as we have seen.
On the other hand, we can’t quit gathering in groups for another six months or a year, scurrying out only for supplies and to perform essential services and otherwise hiding in our houses and apartments waiting for science or the government to make it safe for everyone. The bulk of the population is going to have to go back to interacting with each other in large groups, be it in school, at work, in a sports stadium or socially. As a country we are not built to live like this for long periods of time, and doing so will almost surely cause a great deal more long term harm than the virus.
Most folks are going to have to be allowed to resume a much more normal life, whether people are still getting sick, and in a small percentage of cases dying, or not. We can’t afford, in a number of ways, to keep the whole country penned up more than another month or two while the curve hopefully flattens out. The big question is when do we get to the point that the medical system can handle the number of people who are likely to be hospitalized if you allow a more normal level of human crowding.
If they open the schools for the fall semester for live instruction, I can’t see football being cancelled.If it’s safe enough to have large groups of students close together in classrooms, cafeterias, dorms, etc. it would be really hard to justify not playing football games. And there is going to be a lot of pressure to get schools open for the fall.
I Like Herbie but I don’t think we will be without football. I think once the weather gets really warm the virus will not continue to spread ,now about November and December when basketball is starting up is what you have to be concerned about because we will not have a vaccine and all this crap will start over again.
We don’t know enough about this virus to know whether it subsides during warmer weather. It has spread rapidly in Australia, Middle East, & other places during warm, if not hot, weather. A vaccine, sooner than later, is desperately needed for this virus & latest gift from China.
If this virus still exists here in August & still understood to be highly contagious & lethal, don’t expect live classroom instruction on campus & therefore no college football.
It will depend when scientists and doctors can design a vaccine for Corvid-19. And can other medicines like Hydroxichloroqine prevent or alleviate the symptoms of the virus. And as more people get infected and recover, the populations natural immune systems should adapt to this virus. Antibodies can be used to develop a vaccine. Medicine, science, biology and our ability to adapt will determine our success in defeating this pandemic. And some prayer to the Good Lord wouldn’t hurt either.
Thanks, Colorado Hog for the information. I am your age, 72, and also know I am at greater risk than most, but I agree we need to get back to life. Us older people will need to take greater precautions, but we can’t live our lives in fear. We can’t shutdown this great country and ruin it. We are going to have to ease back into this life as we knew it.
What are your thoughts on when a shot or vaccine may be available? It this a deal that takes months or years of study and research?
That also is the stretch drive of the college football season - probably 40% of all the games played, when you consider Conference Championship games and Bowls.
Youdaman, I selfishly really, really want to see football this fall; but your post reads more like a rationalization of your desire for the games to go on than an objective, pragmatic view of what is likely to come. Don’t mean that as a harsh “criticism”; just the way it reads.
EVERYONE hopes that warm weather makes the virus subside, and there appears to be some good reason to expect that it might (operative word there is “might”). Still, most models indicate that even if we are successful in flattening the curve (keeping the rate of acceleration down, and delaying the “peak”), we are still likely to have some sort of “rebound” next fall/winter. Again, the key word there is “likely” (not 100% certain).
One of the “X factors”, as others have mentioned, is when an effective vaccine is identified AND made widely available. If we have one by this fall, that changes things to some degree.
So - there are lot of “moving parts” and ALL of them would have to line up positively for us to have football. As all Arkansas fans SHOULD have learned by now (but most have not - hence, the continual cycle of predictions for results that exceed our actual performance, year after year) is that it is rare that ALL major factors go in the direction that you want/need them to. The odds are squarely AGAINST that happening. It COULD, but is unlikely.
Even if it does, by then we will have had several months of mental battering about this problem, and virtually everyone in the country will have been affected by someone they know (family, friend, work with) having been touched by a death due to this virus. The last thing most are going to want to do is revert to risky behavior before we are SURE that it won’t feed a resurgence.
I just don’t see it. As usual, when I make predictions like this (that I know will not be popular), I’ll say that I hope I’m wrong…but my gut is usually on target.
I’m just praying as a country we can slow the spread of this virus and give our medical community the chance to treat those that are at risk! We can live without sports until it’s safe!
The big key in my opinion is happening right now. The treatments being tested in New York and the treatments that started in Washington a few weeks ago! Those treatments of effective could be the answer to getting things back to a new normal well before a vaccine!
The social distancing and sports don’t go hand in hand!
The UA has seven home games this season at Fayetteville. Hopefully we (the coaches and players, families and fans, recruiting and the UA athletic department ($$)) can attend those games. Our young team and new coaching staff need all the support we can provide.
My post is based on what most all Respiratory viruses do when the weather gets hot,the numbers go way down! now we will see if this one follows the trend,DEC is the Month when Viruses usually start and most all the games will be done by then…
I also think there are several Meds being looked at that can help really limit the downtime with this disease, Chloroquin has done VERY well with it(highly regared Fr Dr says 79/80 patients have had great results with this combined with z pak) and is now being offerd as OFF LABEL so DR’s are using it as we speak and there are several others being looked at in hopes of really slowing down this beast until we get the Vaccine…well my Gut is usually right too so we will see.