When we look back on Arkansas’ basketball season in a few weeks, it is likely that the result this (upcoming) Tuesday night will have been the “swing” game, either way. If we win it, it will be the reason we held on and slipped into the NCAA field. If we lose . . . well, hello NIT!
We have six games remaining, and sit at 6-6. We MUST go 3-3 (or better, obviously) to get into the NCAA field. We have 3 home games - Texas A&M, Kentucky and Auburn; and 3 on the road (@ Ole Miss, @ Bama and @ Mizzou). I think that if you look at the home schedule, objectively, you’d say we have a “good” chance of winning each of those games, but a less than 50-50 chance of winning them all. In fact, from an objective probability standpoint, it’s fair to say it’s likely we won’t win them all.
That being the case, we’d need to win at least one of our road games to reach 9-9 in conference. And, of the remaining road trips, the Ole Miss game seems to provide the best chance for a road win. So, this becomes a huge game for us.
We control our own destiny; win 3 (or more) games, whether at home or on the road, and we should be in (although with a 9-9 conference record, I’d feel a whole lot better about that if we could win at least one game in the SEC Tournament). But we take the slack completely out of the rope if we lose in Oxford.
The GA road game was pivotal in being here now tied for 4th place with MS, KY, & TAM. Again we are in a pivotal road game, this time OM. We must win this to set us up for home games against TAM, KY, & AU. AU is most challenging. I watched their game against TAM. AU is quick, deep, shoots the threes and attack and run. They are the most dangerous. A win at OM gives us the insurance of perhaps winning 3 out of 6 and the 9-9 record for NCAA.
You nailed it. Ole Miss has lost five straight, too, and two of those have come at home. KenPom says Arkansas has a 55 percent chance to win that one, second best win probability for the final six games only to Kentucky on Feb. 20.
There’s a few things that have already happened this season that hurt. 2 losses to LSU and today on CBS during the the first selection show they mention Arkansas and the the 2 Bad losses to LSU! When they mentioned Texas A@M they mention d how dominant and dangerous they could be without mentioning their 2 bad losses to the same LSU team. That’s another problem the hogs face every year!
We can’t change those 2 losses to LSU, the road to to Moo U, and the road loss to Houston!
What needs to happen start off by beating Ole Miss on the road! That’s the NCAA or NIT bust game! It’s more important to win the road games but we need to beat the teams that are 6-6 in conference and 7-5 in conference.
Missouri, Alabam, Kentucky and Texas A&M.
Those are the teams we are competing with for bids to the Dance.
The Auburn game is a bonus chance.
This season is one full of hope and missed chances.
Compare the top 16 today to our hogs.
Look at the AP top 25.
Look at the RPI
The Hogs better take care of business because they won’t get anything given to them. If there’s a way to leave them out the commmittee will!
This is the key game of the remaining road trips. But, we barely survived them in Fayetteville…again facing a team with quick guards. I like what I saw against Vandy after the first 10 minutes, but Ole Miss will likely shoot better than 12% from the 3 point arch.
Ole Miss has been struggling to score lately. It may be important not to give the rebels anything easy. Also keep them off the free throw line. Fouling in the back court needs to be cut out! We have outrebounsed the last few opponents that will also play a big part. Look for the 3 point line to be huge in this game. The hogs need to take advantage of the arc.
The start of games needs to change. I keep waiting for an explosive start to a game. When will it happen.
You right about the road wins but I’d rather have all three of those road wins!
Ole Miss, Bama and Missouri. The hogs can’t afford a let down at Ole Miss. Bama and Missouri we are competing with them for a NCAA bid.
The 3 home games we should be able to beat Texas A&M and Kentucky! The Auburn game is a bonus game.
The hogs just need to win one game at a time. Maybe they will start games off fast and not get down!
Problem with your strategy is that they also penalize home losses more. So, it all comes out in the wash . . . 3-3 should get us in; but as I wrote elsewhere, if we can go 3-3, I’d feel a lot better (about getting into the NCAAT) if we also won our first round SECT game.
There is no such thing. The committee doesn’t go in saying “we’re only going to put in six SEC schools but the ACC is worth eight.” Each school is judged on its own merits. We’re competing with schools like Kansas State and UCLA more than with Bama or Misery.
I noted some paranoia earlier in the thread, which drives me nuts. If we deserve to get in the Dance, we’ll get in. The schedule has been plenty tough, we’ve beaten Oklahoma and Tennessee, the RPI is adequate (currently 35) and the SEC is more highly regarded this year than in many years, perhaps ever. Last time we got the NIT, we proved that’s where we belonged by getting bombed in the second round at California.