There’s still a possible SIX-way tie for the SEC West divisional title at 5-3 if we win out, Bama loses out and a few other things happen. A five-way tie is also possible.
So I dug into the SEC tiebreaker rules to see who would win.
First, the required game results for the six-way tie:
Bama loses to Arkansas and Auburn
We beat Bama and Misery
Auburn beats the Chickens and Bama
Moo U beats Ole Miss
Ole Miss beats Vandy, loses to Moo U
A&M beats LSU
Head to head records among tied teams: Bama would be 2-3. Auburn would be 3-2. A&M would be 2-3. Ole Miss would be 2-3. We would be 3-2. Moo U would be 3-2. Bama, OM and A&M eliminated.
So that leaves us, Moo U and Auburn. The next tiebreaker is divisional record. We would be 4-2. Auburn would be 4-2. Moo U would be 3-3. Moo U out.
So that leaves us and Auburn. They beat us.
The other weird scenario is if everything else above happens but A&M loses to LSU, creating a 5-way tie.
Head to head: Bama 2-2. Arkansas 2-2. Ole Miss 1-3. Moo U 2-2. Auburn 3-1.
One more scenario: Auburn loses to SoCar but beats Bama and A&M beats LSU. Another five-way tie.
Bama would be 2-2 (us and A&M). We’d be 3-1 (Ole Miss). OM would be 2-2 (Bama and MSU). A&M would be 1-3 (us, OM and Moo U). Moo U would be 2-2 (Bama and us).
We win.
If A&M also lost to LSU, producing a 4-way tie, Bama would be 2-1, we’d be 2-1, OM would be 1-2 and Moo U would be 1-2. And we’d have head to head over Bama. We win.
A guy at The Athletic ran a bunch of simulations of the SEC West. None of his simulations produced a result where Arkansas won the division, but the chances for Moo U, TAM and Auburn were about 0.1% and Ole Miss was barely over 1%. I did this analysis after reading his synopsis of the simulations, which didn’t mention that the Hogs had a chance even to get into the tie.
Of course if we lose Saturday it’s over and Bama wins.
