Five Thirty Eight: Hogs 18% chance of beating UNC

Which is better than it was 24 hours ago, mainly because we beat SHU first.

BPI gives us a 10% chance of beating the Heels.

we are due :sunglasses:

Yeah they also gave Hillary a 75% chance of being President, then claimed they picked Trump when he won.

Sorry, no they didn’t (I read FTE regularly during the campaign). They consistently said Hillary was less of a lock than most other prognosticators thought, but they didn’t pick Trump.

LOL! you beat me to it, when I seen thread title I was just about to post exactly what you said.

There’s always a chance. I like being the underdog! I just wish the game wasn’t being played in their backyard.
As for politics There actually wasn’t a good option for the Oval Office. They are all professional liars!

alternative facts! watch out before somebody says fake media or the university of arkansas is not in Fayetteville, demgaz jefe going to delete this thread real quick. :wink:

jk… but they sure did project Hillary easily… but they never did claim they picked trump, but I am glad to see a trump supporter showing such keen interest in debating data science. that is a fine development.

seriously tho there are plenty of other message boards on the internet to discuss political presidential campaigns etc.

i think the projection algorithms are interstesting and usually very accurate. that’s why they are used in Vegas so much. I like our odds vs the spread this year tho.

Not trying to turn this in to a political debate, but 538 was gospel on the old Lounge. Nostra used it everyday to show how Hillary would win in a landslide. The day after Trump won, they (538) said we told you so, we were the only ones to say he would win.

As for the other statement, I did not support Trump or Hillary, I said people that voted were stupid, because your vote really doesn’t matter. Hence, why people complain about the Electoral College being outdated and needs to be abolished.

my bad. missed that completely in my hasty comment above, that I should delete maybe but seem to have trouble on this super smart phone

I don’t want to go back and find it but I believe they predicted a few different scenarios, some more likely than. others.

I’m pretty sure they wrote that it most most likely that Clinton would win a close one, a little less likely that she would win in a landslide, a possible 3rd option that Trump’s campaign was such an outlier that polling was all wrong and he would win.

Then, after he won, they came back and said they were one of the few sites that talked about him winning being very possible.

That’s a lot more nuanced than them predicting Clinton would win and then the day after the election coming back and saying they predicted Trump would win.

I never saw them say anything about the polling being wrong, they could have. I didn’t pay attention to them until about two weeks prior to the election. They didn’t say one of the few sites, they said only one. I tried to go back and find the original post (day after election) because I found it amusing that the two weeks prior they never mentioned Trump having a chance, then when he won, they said we called it. They even disputed, leading up to the election itself, a news report that Trump stood more of a chance than many believed.

Back to the topic, though, these prediction places guess just like we do. If they filled out a bracket, it’s probably busted. Shocks happen all the time (what I was getting at by mentioning the election, Jerry Palm does the same thing during the season with his Bracketology). I don’t go off what they say, I look at the teams. I know UNC lost a close game to KY. They also managed to squeak out a win vs TN (but UNC was missing a player), watching us against more athletic teams, or teams that can play our style and have an even bench usually doesn’t favor us. UNC has that. But, we are playing better than we have been most of the year, if the officials call it even we have a shot. If they are worried because of the backlash yesterday about the flagrant, we will get hosed.

Umm, no they didn’t.

Nov 8, 2016 per 538, Clinton 71.4% chance of winning. Chance of Clinton winning popular vote and losing Electoral College 10.5% (yep, they’re good at predicting).

Nov 11, 2016 per 538, Trump victory one of the most shocking events in American history, but shouldn’t be a surprise if you followed the polls or read 538.

They never claimed that they picked Trump to win. Just that it would not be shocking. They were much closer to the actual result than others.

What I wrote was direct quotes on the days mentioned. That sure doesn’t sound like we were closer than others, sounds like they are saying we told you so.

They called the victory SHOCKING. Not sure what else you want them to say.

Regardless, unless 538 holds the secret to keeping Meeks and Hicks off the glass, their opinion doesn’t much matter

Ummm, the said shocking unless you watched the polls or read 538, not sure what you are missing with the quote.

I agree they have nothing to do with Meeks and Hicks

Silver was defending himself before the election for giving Trump a better chance than almost any other prognosticator. He was on record before the votes were cast that the high number of undecided voters relative to previous elections made the models highly volatile and perhaps unreliable. He didn’t predict a Trump win, but he believed that Trump had a path to victory that could not be ruled out.

I don’t care what the chances of winning are I’m just thankful for the opportunity to try and prove them wrong. WPS