This seems to be a good (short) informative article presenting a very upbeat viewpoint by an Italian medical pro and a somewhat dissenting view from a British medical pro. The two differing viewpoints may be due to each country’s following prior prescribed protocols.
Thanks for sharing. Their belief has been gaining traction the last few weeks. I really hope and pray they are right.
Interesting…and the Italian is an ID trained specialist, which holds water with us a docs, ie he’s legit. I say this opinion is still premature, because we are seeing a spike in cases in some places. At my local area, these patients are not quite as sick as before(as stated in the article above) and not requiring vents as much, so that’s encouraging. I believe we are seeing the spike in some places bc the younger or healthy folks are getting infected as they relax restrictions. My worry is who all these healthy patients give it to bc there are still so many high risk patients out there that have not been infected.
The article is interesting & we’d all like for the first doctor’s opinion to be correct, but I think I’m going with hogdr’s opinion. He’s the one seeing it here. Maybe it’s not as virulent as it was (really good news), but we’re still seeing deaths & these younger people aren’t likely to interact only with other young people.
That has to be the least scientifically explanatory article I’ve seen.
If the virus has mutated they can isolate it and sequence the DNA structure in less than an hour.
They do know that initial viral load can make a big difference… hence why wearing a mask is important in both not transmitting and how much you might receive when infected. They have also learned many things in hospitals that improve chances of survival for those that get admitted.
At this point I think the only empirical evidence that matters is the amount of hospitalizations, which is the biggest massive effect on societal function, and the number of deaths (what most, but not all unfortunately, consider to be the worst outcome)
So for whatever reasons if the hospitals fill up and more people start dying that to me is all that matters and that is going the wrong direction in some places.
Strange you would say that when HogDr, above posted this:
Interesting…and the Italian is an ID trained specialist, which holds water with us a docs, ie he’s legit.
The Italian doc ought to come down here to Texas. He might then change his mind. Covid-19 aplenty here. Doesn’t seem to be losing any steam. Just ask our esteemed Governor.
It’s not that I necessarily agree or disagree with the article, although there is a lot of hard contrary empirical evidence to make me question it. I’m just pointing out the lack of scientific explanation, data or other to back the observations by the authors. I’m just not the kind of person who believes things based on what I want to believe vs. the science that explains it. If they could explain the science behind their opinion I would be more prone to believe it.
I believe the Italian Doc agrees that there is no real science yet. In these 2 paragraphs below, he explains why be believes it is less virulent in Italy now. He also credits their lock down, mask wearing, and social distancing for some of the reason it has become less virulent. His last sentence admits, it still has to be demonstrated why it’s different now. All he’s stating is what he’s actually seeing in similar patients 3 months ago versus what he’s seeing now.
If you remember, early on in the virus, Italy had become one of the worst countries because they didn’t take it seriously. They did an about-face and did a pretty literal lock down. Unlike the US, the people there did what they were told with the masks and social distancing.
Being nothing similar to a med professional, it seems reasonable to believe that if you catch a tiny bit of the virus while wearing your mask, your immune system could better fight of that small amount. Also, If you are always 6 feet away from an infected person, you are likely going to get a smaller dose of the virus. What may be the scientific stretch is that as the virus has fewer and fewer infected people, that it would mutate itself to a less virulent virus and die out.
"It was like an aggressive tiger in March and April but now it’s like a wild cat. Even elderly patients, aged 80 or 90, are now sitting up in bed and they are breathing without help. The same patients would have died in two or three days before.
"I think the virus has mutated because our immune system reacts to the virus and we have a lower viral load now due to the lock down, mask-wearing, social distancing. We still have to demonstrate why it’s different now.
I follow your thinking Harley, and I believe there are plenty of studies that indicate if you lower the initial viral load you have a much better chance of fighting it off, which is one reason breathing it in and masks reducing that makes for such a huge difference in viral loud.
His last bolded observation is why there are double blind studies to approve drugs and 3 phases of clinical trials to prove efficacy. It’s very easy for humans to think they are observing something when statistically speaking they are just succumbing to a recency effect. (see hydroxychloroquine)
I’d like to believe his observation reflects a reality… and maybe reduced initial viral load is the difference…but we have no idea…yet.
Growth rate of the number of cases is up 17 percent but the daily death rate is DOWN over 60 percent.
I think the number of deaths has now gone down 9 straight days.