End of Season RPI

Just noticed that, per Boyd’s “Needs report”, we and Florida are the only two teams he shows that do not need any more wins to stay in the top 8 of RPI. His report shows that even Georgia - who is fractionally ahead of us in both RPI and RPI SOS - needs to win some games against us to stay in the top 8 of RPI. Same for Ole Miss . . . and every other team in the current top 8 - they all need to win some games to ensure staying there. Even Stanford! Stetson, currently at #7, actually has no way to stay in the top 8 due to the fact that they are hosting #230 South Carolina Upstate for a 3 game series.

Personally, I think we do need to win 1 game to be absolutely sure we stay in the RPI top 8 - as his report before the A&M sweep showed we needed to win 3 of our 6 remaining games to stay there, but after we won Friday, it still showed that we needed to win 3 games (and, yes - it had been updated). So, we are right on the border between needing to win 1 or 0 games to stay, and that will fluctuate depending on what teams we have played do this weekend. Even if we finished just outside the top 8, our overall “report card” is strong enough we may still get a top 8 seeding. But coming off of getting swept by UGA, I’d think they’d get a slot and we’d be the #9 or 10 seed. So we need to eliminate that option.

Bottom line - we MUST win at least one game this weekend (assuming all 3 games are played). Of course, I’d like to win the series. But 1 game is the “must”.

http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html

I’ve kinda moved between thinking we might get away with 0 wins to stay in vs. needing at least 1. I’ve leaned more toward needing at least 1. That’s especially true since UGA is one of our competitors for that spot. I don’t pretend to know all the factors that go into the calculations, however, I don’t see how UGA can be slightly ahead of us now & be in worse position for top 8 seed so that they can sweep us & not get the spot. Right now, I’m just hoping to get 1 win & maybe rainouts for the remainder.

Because they’re playing at home and we’re not. RPI takes home/road into account with a multiplier they won’t reveal. We would be better off, slightly, if they still considered NLR a neutral site, as they apparently did in the past.

That NLR change was made in the last three years. I’m not sure who is responsible for making that change, but because Arkansas sells the tickets and has a clear home field advantage, NLR is listed as a home game and not neutral.

Interestingly, basketball lists NLR as a neutral-site game. Football lists the War Memorial game as a home game.

I’d like to win the series. I believe that’d be a guaranteed clincher for Top 8, but that’s just my opinion.

I think so, too. Something to remember is that the selection committee does not just consider road record alone. It looks at the road record and neutral-site record as a combined record. Even if Arkansas lost the series this weekend, it could still help itself toward a top 8 seed with a strong week in Hoover.

I don’t think anyone disagrees with that. The only question for most of us is whether we can be a top 8 seed with less than a series win.

Would like to win the series just to get the road monkey off the back.

IMO, we’re a lock if we get one win this weekend. We’ll be no worse than 7th in the RPI with that result . . . probably higher than that.

Part of the reason is our SOS . . . I put the post below at the tail end of a weather related thread that had turned into somewhat of an RPI discussion. Moving it here because it fits better in this thread.
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In looking at RPI SOS again, I failed to factor in that #2 (SOS) N. Carolina also has a mid-week home date vs. UNC Wilmington (#91 RPI) in addition to their weekend series with Va. Tech (# 136). And #3 Vandy mas a midweek with Middle Tennessee (#147) that will hurt them. So I believe there is a very good chance we pass both of them and have the #2 SOS in RPI by the time we finish the Georgia series. We already “passed” Wake Forest overnight due to the results of other games yesterday to move into #5 SOS. Of course, that’s unless some of these games get rained out.

What’s interesting is that our RPI and SOS are both virtual ties with Georgia (according to the current Warren Nolan numbers, UGA has an RPI of .6094 to our .6090, while their SOS is .5810 to our .5809). . . so the result of our head-to-head series this weekend will determine who ranks higher in RPI, while it’s likely the results of who each of us has played (which includes a lot of the same teams, but some different ones as well) will most likely determine who will have the better RPI SOS. Florida, who plays at #35 MSU, will end up with the #1 SOS at the end of the regular season.[/color]

Games in the SEC tournament do count in the RPI. The NCAA does not conclude who are the top eight seeds before the conference tournaments. There is a lot of potential for some movement with conference tournaments.

You are correct. But, to use one of your favorite phrases, the hay will pretty much be in the barn by then, in terms of National Seeds. Only scenario where that might affect us, this season, is if we’re 0 for Athens, which would probably put us squarely on the “Top 8” bubble. In that scenario, we’d need to win a game or two before getting eliminated (assuming we didn’t win it, of course) to assure ourselves a place in that top group. If we win 1 at Georgia, we’re a National (top 8) seed, period. We’ve just got too high a SOS and our results have been good enough to get us there.

Something I didn’t mention in the earlier post (and I know it has gotten some mention by others a few times in various threads), but our 19-10 (and counting) record against Group 1 (top 50 RPI) teams is an extremely compelling metric - probably second only to RPI itself. When all is said and done, we will most likely have more wins against that top level of competition than any other team in the country, except #1 Florida. AND, we will have played more games total against that level than just about anyone (again, only Florida has played more such teams). Moreover, our +9 record in that group (wins minus losses) is way ahead of everyone except - you guess it - the Gators. By comparison, the other six teams beside UF and Arkansas in the current top 8 of RPI have the following Group 1 records, respectively: 8-5, 10-12, 14-9, 7-3, 6-3 and 16-11.

It’s awfully hard to look at those numbers, a SOS in the top 3 (which it will be, when all is said and done) and also mix in who we played and beat in non-conference (Texas, Texas Tech, Arizona, Kent State, San Diego State) and keep us out of the top 8 seeds. Only way I can see it is if we lose every game in Athens and then go 0- 2 and out in Hoover. And I don’t see that happening.

Pow! UNC Wilmington upsets UNC, and we move to #3 in both RPI and SOS even before any games are played this weekend.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2018/rpi-live2

It would be nice to use Hoover to let some of our bullpen get work since we have not had mid-week games the past two weeks.

I just don’t know how many pitchers will see action out of the bullpen. Who do you think they will use that we haven’t seen in the last 2 weeks?

Depends on how many games we play there. Two or three, the same people. Get into the weekend, they’ll need to dig a little deeper into the supply of arms.

I hope they don’t mess the pitching rotation up for the regional in the SEC tournament.
Swine who do you think would be the 4 th starter?

Just as projected… Things are falling into place for us… We now sit at number three in both RPI and RPI SOS… We are now a lock for a top eight national seed… And I think we will now go on to win one of the next two games to win the road series and have a lot of momentum heading into the postseason…

I don’t have any idea who he’d use as a fourth starter. He may not yet either. Might pick someone who throws well in Athens this weekend.

Actually Warren Nolan has us at #2 SOS behind only Florida. We passed UNC tonight as well as Georgia

The site had us as #3 (SOS) when I made my post (around 11 PM), 4 hours or so before yours; obviously, things are fluid until all game results for the day are known and posted.

It should only solidify at #2 if we are able to play the next 2 games at Georgia (win or lose, for SOS purposes). I don’t think we’ll be able to catch Florida for #1 SOS; but we might catch them for overall RPI IF they lost the next 2 games and we beat Georgia 2 more times. It would be close.

Of course, there is current #2 (RPI) Stanford ahead of us by a pretty good margin - but, they have six games left and they will be favored in all of them. However, their opposition (Wash State and Univ. of Washington) are not highly rated, and so that will bring Standford’s SOS down a bit just because of that. And, should the Cardinal lose a couple of those games . . . again, it would make it interesting.

But the BIG thing is that we’re now solidly in the top 8, which means we won’t have to leave Baum until we pack for Omaha, IF we can take care of our business at home.