Down the stretch

I would love to go 3 out of the last 4, but we have a real possibility of going 1-3 down the stretch. What do you guys think, as i will be happier than a pig in mess if we split.

Anything is possible. Form 4-0 to 0-4.
I think 3-2 or 2/2!
It all starts at Florida tomorrow night.
They just need to take it 1 game at a time.
It would be nice to see the hogs play the first half of a game and avoid a player sitting with 2 fouls!

I would not be shocked with 4-0. I think 2-2 is the most likely finish but 1-3 or 3-1 are also possible.

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this is tough. I would be happy at 2-2 or better and disappointed at anything less.

0-4 would be pure heartbreak.

Tomorrow night in Florida is very important, need to win that one because it will probably be tough to win Saturday even though we are at home unless we play up to our absolute best.

I looked at our nitty gritty sheet from last year. The record was slightly better (24-6 regular season, 25-7 after SECT) and we were 6-5 in Q1 games in the regular season/SECT. We will have a minimum of 11 Q1 games before Selection Sunday, possibly 14 depending on how the tourney shakes out. Regular season Q1 could be anywhere from 3-8 to 7-4 this year.

Of course our Sweet 16 game was Q3…

I just don’t see us going 0-4. I know it’s possible, but things would really have to go against us–an injury or just an incredible amount of bad luck. UK is going to be tough even at BWA, but I think we can win it I don’t see us losing to LSU. I think we’ll beat UF tomorrow night. It will be hard to beat TN in Knoxville. 2-2 or 3-1 is my guess

I think 1-3 is much more likely than 3-1. We almost couldn’t have a tougher last 4 games. Moreover, I envision no chance of a W at Rocky Top. And, do we have a better chance at Florida versus at home against UK. All are tough, even LSU is again playing better.k

I’d think the pundits would be fairly impressed with 2-2.

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It sometimes feels like Razorback fans are late to the party when there are major changes in head coaches and their staffs. Our board looked similar to this for the last half of our 13 game winning streak in the SEC last season.

The same way for our football season last year. That’s probably somewhat normal though, since we were coming from the depths of despair before Sam and staff appeared.

In basketball, however, we have a coach who has been nothing short of amazing, now in his 7th year as a college head coach. Last season, he took a probably less talented team than this year’s, to the Elite Eight. That team also ended up 2nd in the SEC.

Without much forethought, but based on RECENT history, this would be my probabilities for our next 4 games:

4-0 - 35%
3-1 - 35%
2-2 - 20%
1-3 - 8%
0-4 - 2%

These are based on the assumption that the recent (last 12 games) history is much, much more accurate for forecasting than past history (including 1st 15 games).

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I’d say a more realistic chance might be something like this (just MY opinion):

4-0 - 10%
3-1 - 22%
2-2 - 36%
1-3 - 22%
0-4 - 10%

I base that on the following % chance of winning each of the 4 games left:

@ Florida (45% - remember…we haven’t won there since 1994! And after beating Auburn, they feel good about themselves right now)
UK at home:(45% - I think they are slightly better than us UNLESS we have a good night from outside, which is NOT our forte)
LSU at home (60% - will be another tough game with LSU, but we’re at home)
@ Tennessee (40% - very, very even teams as we just witnessed; they have the home court for the re-match)

So, basically, 4 almost toss-up games. Odds are best that we split.

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Logical reasoning. Your conclusion makes sense to me, but I see through a red tinged Hog viewpoint. If we win at Florida, 4-0 looks doable.

The biggie is the first one. In my mind, we are more likely to beat the Cats on our floor than the Gators on their floor.

I’d certainly feel better about the prospects of “3” wins. I don’t think the Zags could win these 4.

Normally, logically, I agree-but the Force is strong with this team.

Based on each of our last 12 games, I don’t believe the Zags are any better than the Hogs are right now.

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Sounds like your projections are based on ancient Razorback basketball history, rather than looking at what’s actually happened in the last month and a half.

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we’ve never played at FL with Muss as the coach and none of these players are part of the history of losses there. We were high after beating Auburn and laid an egg at AL so they might do the same thing… I think we win that one… KY in the Bud is a toss up to me… we play well offensively we win, we don’t we won’t. We beat LSU and may lose to TN at their place but that one is again a toss up to me. We shoot 40% the other night and we beat them by 20 so…
3-1 or 2-2 … will hope for 4-0

The Zags wouldn’t be ranked #1 if they were in the SEC! They would get served a dose of humble pie!

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I don’t think the Hogs have played this tough a four game stretch this year. Neither do I think we have more or more experienced talent than we had last year. I’m in the camp that thinks Muss has done a great job this season; to be regarded as high as #18 right now is huge.

Can we win these 4, maybe if the stars were aligned…I don’t think they are…this is the same team that allowed Vandy to win at our place (er, the worst shooting team in the conference) including allowing an under 6 foot soph to sink 5 three pointers- something he hasn’t done at any other time this season, while averaging six points per game. I agree, we’re playing better than earlier in the season. I agree “defense” travels, but our offensive travails continue to manifest, including 3 pointers, and 1 footers.

Our late record has been amazing, but I’m not a believer (yet) that we’re an Elite 8 team. In my mind the big difference from last year is we don’t have a Moody to shoot and rebound, and we don’t have a Tate that enables JD to play the 2.

Nevertheless, I hope you’re a better prognosticator.

We basically made it to the Elite 8 with Moody shooting goose eggs during the tourney. I like this team and think we go 3-1.

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