I was thinking about this before the game . . . that IF we beat Florida and then beat LSU - both top 7 RPI teams - we had an argument for a National Seed, even if it was unlikely we’d get one. Both of them are secure in being National Seeds, but the other SEC team considered a lock has been Kentucky. However, with our recent surge and Kentucky’s decline, we’re just about even with them.
They are 39-20, we are 42-16. They finished 19-11 in SEC play, we had a rainout and finished 18-11. The main difference in their favor is that their SOS is #8, while ours is a still very respectable #35. The main factor in our favor is that they are 1-4 down the stretch, losing twice to a mediocre S. Carolina team, and getting run-ruled by LSU. On the other hand, we are now 7-3 in our last 10, including 2 of 3 on the road vs. a hot and motivated A&M team, and after dropping a heart-breaker to MSU by one run, we have annihilated Auburn, MSU and then run-ruled top 5 Florida (who just won a series vs. UK).
IF we beat LSU tomorrow, our RPI will likely be top 10, while UK’s is at #8. Virtually equal teams, but one trending decidedly downward, while the other is red-hot, and a media darling because of Spanberger. And the X-factor is that we’ll be the SEC Tournament Champion.
Could be interesting. But we gotta WIN tomorrow, or else it is moot.
Bumped up to 12th in RPI today (yes, I looked at Warren Nolan) by beating the #3 RPI Gators. LSU is #7. Even with a win, I wouldn’t expect much more than 11th in RPI, maybe 10th if some other games tonight and tomorrow go our way. But Stanford completed its road sweep of Wazzu today and is 9th. Southern Miss is 10th and can win CUSA tonight. A loss by the Eagles would be one of those games that could go our way; so would North Carolina (or Miami) over FSU in the ACC final tomorrow. But I have a hard time thinking we jump over the Cardinal anyway. I think that eighth seed lands in the Sunken Diamond in Palo Alto.
Probably won’t get national seed even with the win tomorrow. Those are probably all decided by now! I hope we make it to Omaha! I personally don’t see Florida or Kentucky doing any more damage than the hogs!
Remember - the top 8 seeds is NOT as cut and dried as the top 8 in RPI.
Yes, the RPI is a strong indicator. But it is not unheard for a team with an RPI of 11 to be a national seed. I still think that us winning the SEC Tournament (if we do) makes a strong case for us, along with the rest of our body of work. Compare us straight up, in ALL categories, with UK and you’ll see what I mean.
The main thing in their favor right now is that they were “assumed” to be a national seed all season.
Well, things change. That’s no different than leading a race from the start, but then laboring down the stretch while someone kicks past you at the tape. Happens all the time.
Good stuff as usual, wiz. Now that we’re having to play a 5th game in the SECT, I sure as heck want to win it & get any advantages that come with it. I’d think we should be ahead of UK, but no way to know. UK didn’t look that good this weekend & if we beat LSU, we’ll have looked great. (Even our loss wasn’t a bad one.)
Wiz, Wiz, Wiz. We aren’t competing with UK, which IMO played themselves out of contention this week. We’re competing with Stanford, which finished second in a darn good league behind the number 1 team in the country, and Southern Miss, which has a ridiculous record, albeit in an inferior league. Are we more likely to get a seed than UK? Yeah. Are we gonna get it ahead of Stanford? I doubt it. Maybe if we won today and Stanford lost, but the Cardinal is in the clubhouse waiting for us.