Dan Mullen and MS ST goes 5-7 last year, gets a bowl

And now is the toast of the town and likely to be at least tempted to leave. How different is that situation from ours and Bret’s? Well, except that Nick Fitzgerald is much faster than Cole Kelley.

And Nicks a better passer.

And he’s not indefinitely suspended

One thing that’s different is that Mullen had built up a lot of goodwill from his performance in previous years including the 2014 season when they went to Tuscaloosa as the #1 team in the country with a 10-0 record and played in their first BCS Bowl. This prior success allowed him to weather a down year.

Bielema is 11-27 in the SEC, 8-21 against SEC West foes, and is headed to a third last place finish in the SEC West in five years. His goodwill bank is empty.

Shouldn’t his overall history of 3 11+ win seasons and 5 9+ win seasons and 3 P5 championships allow for enough goodwill to give him one more year? We don’t give CBB any credit for his achievements prior to his stint here. There are plenty of examples of great coaches that had bad runs and turned things around. He’s only 47. Imagine the payoff if next year is the year that starts a run like he had at Wisc.

Less risk in another year than a change!

That was six years ago - different place, time, and conference. The here and now is a program in shambles and a record that is terrible in the SEC. In mind it would be different if this team was improving. It’s not - he’s been a complete failure at Arkansas.

He shouldn’t get any credit for what was done in Wisconsin. For some reason that success hasn’t happened here. Time to move on.

As you can tell, I see it differently.

2014 7-6 with win vs. #20, win vs. #8, and bowl win vs. Texas.

2015, 8-5, 5-3 SEC, win vs. #19, win vs. #9, and finished by winning 6 of 7 with bowl win.

2016, started with 3W including #15 TCU for a run of 9-1 over last ten games, win vs. #12, win vs. #10, on our way to 9 win season, but blew 24-7 lead vs. Mizzou, and then 24-0 lead vs. #18 VT in bowl to finish 7-6.

Saban at Michigan St: 6-5-1, 6-6, 7-6, 6-6, 9-2. Even great coaches can string together below average years and not progress every year.

CBB had us trending upward. He had elite coach level success at Wisc. This year is the anomaly. Next year will be the 9+ win season, guaranteed! Then long run of success, guaranteed! Sometimes you just need a little more patience. Arkansas is not Alabama, it’s more like Michigan St. You have to have a little more patience here, and tolerate more below average years here before a solid program is developed, and you reap the big payoff.

I am on board giving Bret one more year to get this turned around. My reasons are simple:

You are right, we were trending up last year til the last two games.
This year was never predicted to be a good year by anyone that really knows football. Then additional injuries hit.
The roster is full of highly recruited freshman and sophomores.
Notre Dame went 4-8 last year…and turned it around.
Same for Miss. State.

I do not think Bret forgot how to coach when he came here. I think he inherited a horrible situation. I did too back in 1998 when I came to my institution. I had similar problems. A predecessor that had ruined relations with high schools. Took me 7 years to get it where I wanted it.

Bret needs to win at least one of the next two though. Preferably both.

His record at Wisconsin means squat. He should only be judged on what he has done at Arkansas, which is break a few school records, none being good. He was handed the wheel of a well built strong program at Wisconsin. All he had to do was not run it in a ditch, which Alvarez wouldn’t have allowed to happen. Someone here mentioned they think a great deal of his success at Wisconsin was due to softer schedule.That certainly is logical and I’m sure played a big part in his success at Wisconsin. I also believe that Alvarez was very hands on when it came to the football program. Like a father teaching a child to ride a bike, Bielema was fine while Alvarez was holding on. Once he let go,(Bielema coming to Arkansas) Bielema crashed and can’t get up. Bielema has done nothing since coming to Arkansas to prove my theory wrong.

Bielema is digging a hole that will be harder and harder for the next guy to climb out of. It’s time to stop digging and start filling in. He is in over his head and he knows it. JL may already be gone, but if he gives Bielema another year and we get more of the same, (which his track record here suggests would happen) then JL will most definitely be looking for a moving company.

If CBB wins one of the next two, I would be sorta kinda OK with bringing him back. That would show that his players did not quit and found a way to rise up and overcome tremendous adversity. If these games go the way I think they will, it will be time to turn the page.

I’m with you. I think he could fix things and start a long run of success. But, if he does win 1 of next 2, comes back next year, and then loses to A&M again next year, all hell will break loose. That’s a big risk.

The start of next year for whoever the coach will likely be 3-3.

If it’s Bret here, he instantly goes into the blazing, blazing hot seat. We then jeopardize the best in state recruiting class in over a decade. Plus, I think these next two home games will be indicative of how many seats will be filled.

If it’s a new coach, there won’t be as much pressure for a 6th year coach, and any signs of light will keep those instate recruit, seats will be filled and hope will be restored, temporarily.

We will see how it goes. I personally think Brets fate has already been more or less decided. The next two games will not have good attendance, and that’s not going to look good either.
WPS

And his seasons before 2014? He had a three year run of 7-6, 8-5, 7-6. (coming off on 9 wins in 2010). So I think he weathered more than just one down year.

I don’t think it matters, I think Long is going to fold to fan pressure and make a move. Although he did stand up to the pressure of everyone wanting to fire MA a couple years ago, and while it has only been two games it looks like we could be rewarded with a big year this year. Sometimes patience pays off in the long run.

Reading these fire Bret threads, I’ve thought of two different scenarios. One is the CMA example you’re speaking of. I believe a lot of the fire Bret guys are the same as fire Mike guys. Heck, I believe a few of them are the ones that were screaming for Mike’s head last year when we lost the three games in a row. The second scenario is the Danny Ford 97, HDN 98. I’ve never been a big Bret fan, but I have a feeling that whatever the decision is, next year most of the board will say we should have done the opposite.

I’ve been fine with BB until the debacle at the end of last year. Somehow he lost his players. I think it’s now best for all parties to have a fresh start.

Mullen’s SEC record was 29-35 before the season. Croom cleaned up the program before his arrival in Starkville.

Bret is 11-27 if you count the first year. 11-19 if you don’t.

So Mullen won 45% of his SEC games coming in to this season and Bielema won 31% of his.

Counting this season YTD Bret has sunk to 29% and Dan is still at 45%.

Bret could win his next two and finish 8-0 next season and still be a couple of percentage points behind Dan.

They are miles apart.

Miles apart? You mentioned BB’s 8-21 record against the SEC West. Over the same time, Mullion is 12-16. If you discount Brett’s first year, it’s 8-15 vs. 10-12. One of those wins was on a missed field goal in Fayetteville, so if it had gone thru they would have the same number of SECW wins in the last four years. Also, when comparing overall records, keep in mind that out of conference Miss St. hasn’t played a P5 opponent since a 2013 loss to Ok St.

Again, I don’t think any of that matters, I think Long is probably going to fire BB even though he probably doesn’t want to. But I find it funny everyone thinks Mullen is such a better coach that he is being mentioned for EOEk and Florida. I don’t have the time or energy to look it up, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Butch Jones conference record is better than Mullen’s over the last 4 or 5 years. Of course EOEk benefits from being in the East instead of the West, but still that’s an awful lot of money to spend for not much of an upgrade.

Folks here in Chattanooga saying Mullen to TN. Which I doubt but I do know they have been coveting him for a long time.

Those same folks say Kelly to UCLA.

All speculation.