In their latest playoff projection this morning, D1 Baseball had the Hogs as the #9 seed, hosting a regional but paired with Notre Dame and the South Bend Regional. Notre Dame was their #8 seed. (I think the NCAA now calls all regional hosts national seeds, but I still think of national seeds as the top 8 who are guaranteed to host their way to Omaha if they stay alive.)
It’s interesting that they ranked us #4 in their poll this week but project us as #9. They moved Auburn into their group of top 8 seeds, so I suppose they expect us to lose on the road this weekend. I’m sure it will be a tough series.
I think our RPI (and losing last night) may be catching up with us. I know we’ve been assured that playing all these in-state schools with low RPI numbers isn’t going to hurt us, but I’m not so sure that’s accurate.
Certainly, the SEC series are the most pivotal, but I don’t see how those other games won’t be a factor if things get messy.
Those weak nc games don’t help us other than by giving us a chance to play. However, I still think our seeding is going to come down to what we do in the next 3 weeks. If we win 5 or 6 of the remaining 9, we’ll probably be a national seed. If we only win 5 of them, we might need to win a couple at Hoover to get there. Win 6 or more & I think we’re probably safe. (6 gets us to 20 wins & an almost certain SECW championship.)
I know our RPI isn’t good, but our ELO is within the top 5 according to Warren Nolan. I say that because I noticed it. I don’t pretend to know exactly what ELO is & whether that’s given any more credence than RPI.
The Elo system (it was a guy’s name, not an acronym) was developed to rate chess players. It is solely based on who you play and who you beat. You beat somebody, you take some of their Elo points. They beat you, they take some of yours. It’s purely results based, where RPI is more or less a strength of schedule measure. SOS matters in Elo too, of course, but if you keep winning, your Elo goes up regardless of who you play. Misery State picked up more points for beating us last night than we would have picked up if we won.
ELO, on the other hand, is still a helluva band (I saw them play three years ago).
Do you know if the selection committee gives the Elo rating much credence. (Not Credence Clearwater Revival or CCR. Of course if they listen to Credence maybe they’ll respect our Elo. If they listen to ELO, maybe they’ll give us Credence.)
I’m confident this team has the ability to hit really well. It’s been frustrating that we haven’t really done so much this year. But knowing they can gives me hope for the post-season. As we all know, much about the key to winning in baseball is when you get hot. I’d much rather struggle now & get hot soon than be leading the SEC by 6 games & go cold in May & June. Not that those are mutually exclusive. We might stay cold & lose in the regional. I hope not. TN might stay hot & win it all. I hope not.