Computer predictions for Elite 8 games

I was telling my son last night that I felt we had about a 1 in 3 chance of winning. Gonna predict Baylor 79, Hogs 65.

Hope I’m wrong, and I’ll be cheering like hell for the Razorbacks this evening.

How accurate have the previous computer predictions been during tournament?

78-72 Baylor if we shoot the ball reasonably well. They are a number 1 seed for several reasons. If we shoot the ball like we did against ORU, a difference of 14 points or more is very possible. Love my hogs and hope I am wrong, but this is a real tough one!

See for yourself…they have the prior dates blacked out (you cannot select them directly). However, if you go to the URL at the top of your browser and edit the date (to see what they predicted for games on that date) you can see the predicted difference in the ELO margin. For example, I changed the date on the link provided in the OP of this thread to Saturday’s date, and was able to see this:

I cannot imagine what you’ve seen from the Hogs in their last 17 games that lead you to the conclusion that they will lose by double digits, let alone 14 points. I sure wish the Hogs were 14 point dogs in the Vegas line.

It’s just the way games go, especially “big” games…like the Super Bowl. Once a team sees that it is unlikely to win (if that happens), they press and the deficit grows bigger at the end. Especially in basketball, where teams foul in desperation to get more possessions at the end. How many games have you watched that were very competitive, only to end up 12 point games at the end and the announcer says “the score doesn’t indicate how close this game has been”.

Just conjecture, and I hope I’m wrong. I simply think that Baylor, who shot pitifully from 3 this past game, is unlikely to repeat that dismal performance…and that doesn’t bode well for anyone who might be playing them next…which happens to be us.

On the other hand, we’re in this game for a reason as well…and certainly able to win it if we play well.

Go Hogs!

I know one thing. I doubt we will be able to dig a deep hole of 15 to 20 down, and be able to come back again.

This topic was automatically closed after 30 days. New replies are no longer allowed.