California State system cancels most fall classes

Very few students in classrooms at any CSU campus, which includes schools like Fullerton, Fresno State and San Jose State. Online classes almost exclusively. Yes, it’s California, and yes, they’re not in Power Five conferences, but this may be the first of a lot more announcements like this and we’ll have to see if fall sports can survive in 2020.

Unfortunately that’s a big deal. I think San Diego State is another one in that group. Will begin to have peer pressure on other similar schools.

Correct. So is Long Beach State. CSU is the largest state university system in the country with about 500,000 students. Other universities will look at what they’re doing.

This is really something re: Tyson — 4500? Not great optics if accurate.

This confirms how problematic close proximity can be. Even academics and classes present huge issues that are hard to overcome.

According to ESPN, the University of California system, which includes Cal and UCLA, is considering a similar move. Fresno, SDSU and San Jose State all say they’re working on contingency plans for athletics in the fall.

A Division II conference in California has already cancelled all fall sports, by the way.

And yet, none of the D-I schools have canceled their fall sports, so I wouldn’t get my panties in a wad, but several on here wish to.

Nobody wishes anything, pal, but the possibility of no fall sports not only exists but is growing stronger. The model the Trump administration uses to forecast the death toll was adjusted upward yesterday to 147,000 by early August. This problem is not going away, and just saying “we’ll play the season as normal” doesn’t make it happen. I think the Power Five schools are waiting to see what happens for the most part, but if UC shuts down that’s going to make it more likely that other Power Five schools follow suit.

I think the PAC might mandate just playing a conference schedule, and give the schools the option of playing non-conference games. They might even play without the California schools. Arizona’s governor certainly has already signaled an okay for pro sports without fans, which at least suggests that college teams could do the same thing there.

If UCLA and Cal don’t play I don’t see that decision in and of itself impacting the decision of schools back east.

This is probably going to be a conference by conference thing, and there may be some non-conference games that don’t get played. I think it’s likely everybody in the SEC plays this year if their students come back to campus. And right now it looks more likely every day that students will be back on campus in the fall.

Without opening up the whole severity of the virus thing again, I would just say that the number of deaths is not going to drive the conversation about re-opening in most places, unless the number goes a lot higher than the number in your post. New infections and hospitalizations are going to be more important.

That’s all intertwined though. Our case/fatality rate has been about 6%, meaning 6% of the confirmed cases die. If that continues, 147,000 deaths means 2,450,000 confirmed cases. Right now, according to Johns Hopkins, we’re at 1,369,376 cases. So 147,000 would mean more than a million new cases between now and August.

There’s been a lot of discussion of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009. There were 60 million cases of H1N1 but only 12,469 deaths according to CDC. That’s a case/fatality rate of 0.02%. Which means this virus is 300 times more deadly than H1N1. If the C/F rate for H1N1 had been 6% we would have had 3.6 million deaths.

Interesting. And that will enter into the decisions of when to resume football, I suspect. Private schools are at particular risk since they lack direct government support. My sources with direct knowledge of Arkansas’ private colleges say two of them are in deep trouble already.

If you can trust the mortality data. When hospitals are being paid more dollars to say someone died from COVID vs. another co-morbidity that person may have had then the data is going to be skewed.

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Hospitals don’t make those decisions. Doctors do, the ones who actually treated that patient. And falsifying a cause of death is grounds for losing your medical license. In all likelihood the reported death count is too low, not too high; doctors who weren’t sure their patient with pneumonia also had COVID-19 were likely to list pneumonia as the cause of death.

You don’t know, I don’t know. I choose not to take every sliver of info as negative. They may not play on the west coast, or elsewhere, I’ll wait until something more definitive is decided.

No S–T! Who pays the physician? The hospitals. And physicians are never guilty of upcoding to increase reimbursement are they? And they are rarely doing autopsies so who is going to go after the physician?

Good thing to know that no Dr has ever been found guilty of fraud or lost their license, say no one.

This is the absolute correct answer to all of this. It’s an utter mess, moreso every day.

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I continue to be amazed how people are absolutely certain they have the answers and don’t give any credence whatsoever to what others think.

Somehow this, like so many other things, has become a political football instead of a effort from all to do what is best - be it socially or economically.

My thought process is just to take care of my family, myself and my friends through emotional support and not try to act like I know more than anyone else.

In fact, I am certain I know less.

I am not going to preach to others about how they should handle their lives.

Let me be clear. This is not directed to one side or the other. It is just some heartfelt thoughts.

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Here we go down the hole again. You are correct that the problem is not going away. The issue is the severity of the problem, and what you are willing to do make it less of a problem.

The problem with the death rate you put out there is that the actual death rate from infection is not 6%, it’s probably not even as high as .6%. You have to measure cumulative actual infected versus dead to know how lethal the virus is to the country as a whole.

The number of people who have been infected to date is a large multiple of the number of people who have been confirmed to be infected. The studies don’t agree on how big a multiple there is between actual infected and confirmed infected, but there is a very general consensus that it was a big number about a month ago. There has not been any additional data to suggest that the virus has gotten any more potent in the last few weeks, so it’s still reasonable to assume that many new infections are escaping detection because the infected are not getting sick and any people they’ve infected have not gotten sick. Of course we find more of these hidden infections as we increase testing.

The number of dead reported by many states also includes virus-related deaths, where the person had other things killing them or contributing to death, as well as suspected virus cases where the person had symptoms consistent with the virus but was not tested.

In short, using the death numbers as a percentage of confirmed infected people is a bogus way to determine the virus’s danger to the country if you are basing the risk on the likelihood that an infected person will die or end up in the hospital.

If all you want to do is prevent any additional deaths, than that is a philosophical argument about what constitutes needless risk, because we don’t have to have sports or concerts or movies or in-person church/school attendance to survive, at least in the short-term. The same thing is true if you take the position that even if the mortality rate/hospitalization rates are very low, anything that leads to thousands of additional infections should be avoided. There’s nothing to say accept I disagree.

The data now strongly indicates that few people who are actively infected will ever get sick enough to go in the hospital. In New York, for example, as of Monday there were 338, 445 people with “active” infections(positives minus recoveries and deaths) and there were 7063 people hospitalized-2.7% of confirmed actively infected people.

Since we know many people have been, are, and will be infected without ever being confirmed to be infected, we also know that the hospitalization rate among actually infected people is much lower than 2.7%. Maybe it’s 1% of currently infected people, maybe it’s less.

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One more detail. If you put a false diagnosis to get more money from Medicare, that’s a federal crime. Prison time. And they will prosecute. Medicare doesn’t pay enough to risk Club Fed.

The only s…t in this conversation is what you would need Fleet’s to remove, Mr Medical Expert