Bracket Matrix -- solid 5 seed

Updated last night. Hogs are the second 5 seed behind Creighton with an average of 4.82 on 105 brackets. But as always at bracket time, things change frequently. The range of selections was 3 seed (8 of those) to 8 seeds (two of those). But one of those brackets that had us as an 8 updated this morning, after the Matrix update, and moved us up to a 5. The other 8 hasn’t updated since the Bama game.

The bottom 4 seeds (USC and Virginia) both averaged 4.42. So we’d have to move up about 43 lines. Three of those, we already have (the guy who moved us from 8 to 5). Lunardi says we’ll be a 4 if we beat both LSU and SoCar; I wonder if he’d move us up just for LSU (we’re the second 5 seed on his board).

Well, that’s a stretch for him. Winning versus the leagues #3 team and winning on the road at SoCar (tough venue), after besting Bama, and he’ll move us up a single notch.

I’m not saying we’ll win the next two games, but if we do, continuing the win streak, will be strong evidence this team is pretty good.

Any single win (and I’m not talking about SoCar) is only gonna do you so much good at this point of the season. He could also leave us as a 5 even if we win.

You guys already know this, but the higher you go, the less room there is to move up. Going from a 5 seed to a 4 seed means displacing 3 or 4 teams that were already thought to be better. And being a 5 means there are fewer than 20 teams to displace… and at least 4 or 5 of those are way out of our reach.

It is sort of like getting better at golf. Once your handicap gets to about 4 or 5, you have to practice A LOT just to improve your scores by an average of a stroke or two per round.

When you’re working on an already-low handicap, you’re not trying to displace anyone else, but you’re trying to get that last 5% out of your capacity (in my case that last 5% was trying to get my handicap below 20; I never made it). In this situation, you might get that last 5% and still not move up.

People keep asking Joe Lunardi what it’s going to take for Baylor to get the #1 overall seed. The answer is pretty obvious: Gonzaga has to lose. But Gonzaga can be had. West Virginia (same school that lost to Florida at home) played them to 5 points on a neutral court (Bankers Life Fieldhouse) in Indy; WVU led with less than 7 minutes left. Maybe Baylor would have beaten them in December, but it was virused out.

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