With a projected 6 seed, a 65.8% chance of making the second round, and a 30.5% chance of making the Sweet 16 (that was 25.8% yesterday). The chance of winning the natty is still only 0.5%. Final Four? 4.3%.
Also up to a 10.3 point favorite Saturday over the Aggies (it was 9-something yesterday). And a 0.4 point favorite over Bama next week in what is projected as the best game in the country that day. Yesterday’s game was also the best in the country that was actually played (UNC-VT was rated higher but postponed).
I hope Muss has the team convinced they have to win out in the regular season.
Honestly, I believe we just need to beat @ A&M and @ SC. I hate it that those 2 games are sandwiched around Bama and LSU. As well as we’ve been playing, we still cannot overlook A&M or SC road games and expect to win them. I think we win one of Bama or LSU, which would also cinch us getting to the Big Dance.
I want a 3-5 seed so I want a sweep of the regular season.
I think we’re seriously cruising toward a lock. Beating A&M and Bama should do it. A&M on the road is right on the borderline of Q2 but right now is still Q3; however a road win is still valuable and would put us over .500 on the road. And Bama is solidly Q1. If we split the two, we still have some work to do. If we lose both, back on the bubble. But two wins is 19-5, probably a top-5 seed on most brackets with 2-3 games to go plus the SECT, and 5-4 in Q1 assuming Kentucky moves up to Q1 tonight by beating Vandy.
I’d say if we’re 19-7/20-7 going to Nashville, we’re safe, assuming we don’t lose to A&M or SoCar or both.
Winning a game? See what BPI had to say above. Two games is a little more iffy but not impossible.