beat Ok St., crack top 25?

I may be dreaming too much.

Thrilled we are on path to NCAA’s which seemed our annual fan base birth rite for so many years.

Zero chance. We’re not even receiving votes. Road wins against 9-10 Vandy and 12-8 Okie Lite are not enough probably to even get votes, much less crack the rankings.

Only chance we have of being ranked is going undefeated until we play South Carolina, then beating them (assuming they still are ranked). And that’s a tall order. Not saying we can’t do it, but it will be tough.

We are projected on most brackets as a 9 or 10 seed, which is essentially a top 40 team which is about where we are right now. My optimistic guess is us finishing 7-4 in these last 11 games. That will put us at 23 wins, which unless we have a bad loss to Missouri should be enough to keep us in that 9-10 seed range.

We will get some votes

If we go undefeated up until Usce, that has us ending the week prior at 21-4, 9-3 and on a 9-game winning streak.

I could easily see them being ranked at that point heading into Usce.

I would agree it probably doesn’t happen short of that streak up until Usce.

It always takes longer than you think to break into the rankings. That said, we are getting some national attention with our comebacks.

Two things:

1st to answer the OP’s question - No, beating a 12-8 team won’t be enough

2nd - PIG, look at the schedule. Going undefeated until USCe better happen, if not we may fall out of the brackets. Yes, I know where we are listed right now, but Okie Light isn’t considered that good. Road games at Missouri and LSU are actually MUST Wins, because those two teams are bubble busters, a loss to either one would put us on the outside looking in. A loss to Vandy at BWA wouldn’t be considered too much better than a loss to LSU or Missouri on the road. Bama maybe the best team during that five game stretch and even a loss to them at BWA would be far worse than you seem to think. These next five games are crucial to us making the tourney. Honestly, other than USCe and Florida, it’s safe to assume a loss to anyone left on our schedule is far worse than many think. Yes, that includes GA, who during their next five games get KY, FL, USCe, and @TN in a row, so you have to assume that they may lose three of those four, or maybe all four, which makes our last game much less appealing than currently perceived.

I don’t think tomorrow is a must win, by any means. OSU is much better than their record and they have a top 50 RPI (43), which makes them the best team we’ll play other than UF and USC-E. A win will help more than a loss will hurt.

There’s certainly still a treacherous path to negotiate at home too with UGA (rpi 54), Bama (rpi 76), OM (rpi 61), Van (rpi 62), hopefully the MSU game showed them that they can’t just coast at BW.

Losses at either LSU (rpi 132) or Missouri (rpi 271 :shock: ) could be bubble busters.

I had to relook at what I said, sorry. I don’t think tOSU is a MUST win, I don’t think it’ll be a “good” loss. May hurt more to lose to them, than a win against them would help. The home games we can’t lose. Yes, right now they’re decent teams, but They all have a much more difficult conference schedules remaining than we do. Our schedule was front loaded, GA, Ole Miss, and Bama seem to be in the middle to the end. The MUST WINS, IMO, are LSU and Missery.

Just want to preface this by saying if we wind up on the bubble, I think we are good enough to make something happen in the sec tourney. The bubble is so large, like 20-30 teams legitimately think they are bubble contenders at the end of regular season. So it is not like a terrible failure if we are within that bubble group when conference tourney starts.

However we all want to be safely in the dance, and it might take a projected 6 or 7 seed to be considered safely in.

We need to go 12-6 in conference AND have a couple top 50 rpi wins to be in that 6 or 7 seed territory. So losing to okie light is not killer, if we are ok with a little bubble talk and expectations to make noise in the sec tourney.

No matter how you slice it though. This game is big for our tournament hopes and seeding.

It probably falls in the big opportunity category rather than the must win category. And to me the big opportunities are even more important. We don’t want to face any real must wins until March. That’s the way it should be.

We have a little wiggle room in this upcoming stretch. One loss isn’t going to throw you from a 9 seed to out of the picture. I would say winning 4 out of the next 5 would be really good, and would hold us around the 9/10 seed area. Winning all 5 would probably move us up a seed. If we got 3 out of 5 probably looking at the 11 seed area. The only loss that would hurt really bad is @Missouri. Even LSU with a 129 RPI, it wouldn’t be as bad as you think. 129 is not horrible, it will be teams in the bubble area that will have worse losses than that on the road.

A ran a scenario on If we win 3 out of the next 5 (win Alabama, @Mizzou, Vandy and lose @OK St and @LSU) our RPI would be 33. If we win all 5 we’ll have a 26 RPI, win 4 out of 5 (loss @Ok State) RPI is 30. And our SOS on all of those would be 68.

Give me a second and I’ll explain further. My iPad will erase what I write while flipping back and forth, so here is what I’m looking at (they’ll be several edits while I’m updating) - projected record in ()

Okie Light - 12-8 - teams on remaining schedule currently in Lunardi’s bracketology - 7 counting us. They’ll probably not win 20 games. If they do, it’ll be considered a lot better than you think, but if they lose 4 (Baylor, Kansas, and WVU are all still on the schedule) they won’t be a 20 win team. A 19 win B12 team is considered better than a 19 win SEC team, but it’s still not that good. (I can see them losing all 7) - (projected finish per rpiforecast you listed - 17-13)

Bama - 12-7 - teams remaining on schedule with chance to dance - 5 - AR, KY, SC, Ole Miss, and GA - if they just lose to KY and USCe they’ll be 21-9 - probably the equivalent of OSU going 19-12, a loss to them won’t be that good - (18-12)

Vandy - 9-11 with 5 games against currently projected teams in the tourney. If they lose to Iowa St (1 of those teams) they won’t win 20 (but they also have @KY, USCe, and Florida). You have to assume they lose to KY, so that put them at 18 wins, not a good loss for us (14-17)

Ole Miss - 12-8 - (my pick to finish 5th in our league) has Baylor, AR, USCe, Bama, and Miss St x 2 - now if they beat Baylor and lose to us and USCe, then beat everyone else they’ll be 21-10, but that Baylor win will more than likely get them in, but I don’t think they’ll beat Baylor. So 21-10 wouldn’t get them in, while not a horrible loss, it would be much better to win a game against a team that looks like a definite bubble team. (17-14)

aTm 11-8 - WVU, KY, @Fl, @ Vandy, @ AR - it’s easy to see them losing at least 4 (even if they beat us - That makes them 19-12, that’s not a game we need to lose. (16-14)

AUB - 13-7 - TCU, AR, Bama, Ole Miss, Fl - again TCU and Florida should be losses. If they win out it’ll make them 22-9 (losses to TCU/Florida) they’ll probably be in the dance (by beating us) if we win all but FL/USCe and AUB - might be the only loss that really wouldn’t be terrible (besides FL/USCe) (18-13)

Ga - 11-8 - KY x 2, Florida, @ USCe, @ AR, @ Bama, @TN, Miss St - I see a very, very difficult schedule, and very realistically at least 5 losses. That would put them at 18-13, a “bad” loss if they win (16-14)

Missery (7-23), LSU (11-19) we’ve already discussed, USCe (23-7) and Florida (23-8) wouldn’t be bad losses, but a win might get us in, even with a few losses.

No, I don’t think beating OK St. get’s us ranked. I do think we will be ranked before USCe. I don’t think we will beat USCe, and will consequently fall out of the rankings. I think we will finish better than 7-4 down the stretch. I think we will push into a 7 seed.

Regardless of what each team’s ending record is we don’t have to have all 5 games. Unless you’re predicting every team losses the rest of their games (which is highly unlikely, except for Missouri).

If you get a chance go to this website.

On there, you can run any scenario for any team you want. I ran the scenarios, and even if we go 3 of 5 or 4 of 5, we’re still in the mix. As they say the numbers don’t lie.

Look at what I wrote BLU. Those teams have very difficult schedules. Any loss besides Fl and USCe wouldn’t be good. It changes a lot. That website is going off current standings and records, not what the future records of each team will most likely be.

More important than impressing the committee, is convincing our own team that we can beat top teams when we get there.

That is why we desperately need a quality win. These guys are gaining confidence big time and learning how to win. That is cruscial. But there is no substitute for beating a ranked team.

I believe we can. I think our players believe too. If we get that quality win, that other stuff will take care of itself.

The pokes are not to be confused with a top 25 team. But they have potential to be our biggest W of the year so far.

Just Win Period

Yea, I quite aware of all of those teams and their schedule. My opinion stays the same which is we don’t have to win the next 5 to make the tournament. You could lose 1 or 2 of those games and still be projected in the field. Our RPI isn’t going to drop too much especially if it’s a road loss to a top 50 RPI team. You don’t go from a 9 seed projection to out of the field after losing one game.

It’s good to hope for a 25+ win regular season, it’s possible, and hope we get there. But looking at the numbers and projections I don’t think it’s required for us to make the field. We can agree to disagree on that.

We don’t necessarily disagree, if we go 7-4 but beat Fl and USCe, I think we are in, but we go 7-4 with losses to USCe, Florida, Missery, and LSU we might not

My prediction would be

@Ok State - L
Alabama - W
@Mizzou - W
Vandy - W
@LSU - W
@USCe - L
Ole Miss - W
@Auburn - L
@Florida - L
Georgia - W

I think if we can do that, it still gets us in. That’s a 23-8 record regular season record, with only 1 potential bad loss which is Miss State (assuming they don’t do much better). I think that would put us around a 10 seed. If we win 1 or 2 in the SEC tournament probably can move up to a 8 or 9 seed. I like this team a lot, but I just don’t think we’re too much better than an 8 or 9 seed right now. However, I am optimistic, because we’ve shown resilience. And looking at any game on that schedule wouldn’t surprise me if we won. I will say also I like your scenario more. Hope we do beat USCe and Florida, but those games will be tough.

The pm I sent you the other day had us losing to FL and USCe, but winning the rest. When you look at the rest of the teams schedules, I don’t really see any “good” teams. I don’t think a loss @AUB would be a killer, but I don’t think a win would be a “resume builder.” I want to go 27-4, but I’m not sure about Fl and SC. We will see.

By the way on the rpiforecast I did the following scenarios:

Loss to Missouri, LSU, Florida, USCe, and Ole Miss in 1st game of SECT. We ended with a record of 23-9, RPI 31, SOS 67. I then switched FL and SC for Okie Light and Vandy, 23-9, RPI 31, SOS 67. No matter the combo I used with 5 losses it keeps coming up with that exact number. I think you understand that if we beat FL and SC, even with losses it’ll be different than if we lose to FL, SC, Missery, and LSU. That’s one of the issues I have with the forecasters.