…we are 7-5 in the SEC and 18-7 overall currently.
We just went 1-3 in the three most winnable games in the late part of our SEC season. Now we got three tough away games and three at home that are not as tough but tougher than the Vandy, Mizzou, and LSU trio games. So, we could finish 1-5 if we play like we did against Vandy and Mizzou and we could finish 4-2 if we play like we did against LSU. That basically means we are hot from outside for the majority of each game and we don’t dig a gigantic hole in the first half. I doubt we are going to be hot from the outside at all of our home games AND at Auburn. Even if we are hot shooting @ Florida and South Carolina, I don’t think we beat them. Hope I’m wrong and Anderson has finally got their attention, got them focused for more than a half at a time, and the team kicks it up to a new level, finally.
So, if we go 1-5, finish 19-12 and exit the tourney early do we even make the NIT? Probably not.
If we go 4-2, get to 22-10 and win a couple in the conference tourney, do we dance @24-11? Probably.
My prediction is 3-3 (I think we beat Auburn but lose ugly @ one of the home games), finish 21-10 in the regular season, and we come out of the tourney @ 22-11. I suspect that is NIT at best and CMA’s seat is really hot and needing significant improvement next year to be retained. JMVHO.
If we play like we did against LSU, I do not think we beat anyone except maybe Auburn. Frankly against LSU we only played one good half, not an entire game. And to be outrebounded 50-30 is going to be hard to translate into very many victories.
FWIW, the ESPN BPI projections have us going 3-3 from here out in all probability, although stealing a win at Aubie wouldn’t be a huge upset (43% chance of winning IIRC). RPIforecast.com also expects 3-3 (35% chance of that, which is similar to BPI’s 38% chance of 3-3). Both BPI and RPIforecast say we have a better chance of going 2-4 than of going 4-2.
All forecasts for this schizophrenic basketball team have proven to be meaningless, especially in SEC play. If the entire team decides to dedicate themselves to these last 6 games and play with great energy and effort, they can go 5-1 or even 6-0. If they play complete games like the 1st half of LSU or the 1st half of Vandy, they will go 0-6.