AU is last game w risk for really bad loss

Seems like at this time of year on the bubble it’s not so important what you do but what you don’t do–avoiding the ‘bad loss’ is key. Committee has a bunch of teams and they are mostly looking for reasons to eliminate teams.

Losing at FL or even at home to UGa (which is has RPI of 53 when I looked today) would not be really bad loss. Losing to Auburn (RPI 75 and in the bottom 3rd of SEC) would be considered a pretty bad loss by committee even on the road.

If we get the double bye in the SECT than any team we play in our first game is likely to be a middle of the pack team from the Ole Miss, Georgia, Bama, Tenn, Vandy group (barring upsets)

Any loss could be bad. We need to win at Auburn and we will! The hogs are playing with a little edge right now that they have been missing all year! They are playing together. I felt as if the hogs had control the whole game we did not shoot well but we found ways to score.
The 3 is a weapon we need to use and knock down at Auburn and hope we make more than they do. I hope we can play from out front and bold an early lead.
Let get this one and worry about the next one when it’s over.
Hogs 95.
Auburn 76
Hogs have 6 players score in double figures and Trey has 10 rebounds and 10 assists.
Mosses has a double double

Yeah, I agree with Army that any loss will be bad for us. We just left ourselves too little room for error with the MSU, Vandy & MU losses. Still, if we win 2 of the last 3, especially if the loss is a close one to UF, I think we’ll squeak into the tournament. But even if we lose just one, it might take one win in the SECT even if we do get the double bye.

I think they could lose at Auburn and still get in per what else is happening on the bubble.

But I wouldn’t test it.

Could be wrong but if we go 2-1 in our last 3 (losing to FL on the road) I just don’t see a scenario where we don’t get in.
At that point we would be 23-8 w an RPI in the mid 30s (losing to FL which is #6 RPI right now on the road is not going to drop our RPI very much if at all) going into SECT.

Certainly maybe overly optimistic but the bubble is so soft there are just not that many teams Power5 teams with RPI better than 40 and 23 wins–someone has to get in and I think we will compare favorably with many teams.

Even if SECT only ends up w 3 teams (I know the committee says they don’t look at how many from each conference), seems like we compare pretty favorably to SC right now (which is generally listed as a 7 seed).

We have similar RPI (33 vs 30), better overall record, identical conference record, and we beat them on their own floor. What would be the argument to pick them over us?

I obviously hope we don’t lose but we should manage expectations a little. I think we were only 7-8 pt favorites at Missouri and they were on their huge losing streak. I’ll bet we’ll be maybe 1 pt favorite at Auburn or heck it could be a pick em game. Maybe that’s a bad loss… but it won’t be much of an upset.

I don’t think that the gambling line (spread) has much effect on selection committee, but let’s just win them all and not leave any reason to be left out.

I don’t either. I just can see everyone shocked and complaining on this board if we lose and I’m saying it’s a 55% proposition we win.

NO TEAM from a P5 conference has EVER missed the tournament with 23 wins and a Top 40 RPI. If we beat Auburn, and GA, lose to Florida and our 1 st game in the SECT we would have 23 wins and a mid 30 RPI (RPI Wizard said 36). We will be in.

Another interesting tidbit per the Wizard, if we lose to AUB, GA, and our 1st game in the SECT, but beat Florida we will be 22-10 and a 40 RPI. Only one team from a P5 conference (USCe last year) won 23 and didnt get in. The lowest RPI to be excluded was 41 but they didn’t have 22 wins. So, at 22-10 with a 40 RPI we would literally be on the bubble and sweating on selection Sunday. If we win 2 of 4 we are in.

There’s one solution. Win. If we don’t on to the next game. Early in the year this team got spanked on the second half by Kentucky and lost! That loss carries over to Mississippi State. Then yet later we had a tribute for victims killed in a plane crash at OKST that woke them up and we got thumped! The next Saturday we go to Missouri and another tribute and Missouri’s players play like they have never played before and we shoot above 50% and so do they and we get beat. Well that loss carries over to Vanderbilt! Short memory after a loss. This team seems to be playing with an edge and as long as they play together it should be a win. We will have to out score Auburn. They are young and should throw them ball out into the parking lot at times. I hope we maintain our emotions and don’t get too excited! Win or loose
With the number of horrible of teams from the ACC and Big 10 that are said to be on the bubble and already (10 or more losses in some cases) it would be a complete sham for us to be left out. Hope we win.

Unfortunately, what needs to happen, many on here don’t want to happen. USCe, KY, and AR need to win out. Florida needs to lose their last three. Palm and Lunardi will immediately start the SEC sucks bias they’re showing, but it would put us on the opposite side of the bracket of KY. With the edge we are playing with, and with Fl missing a key player, we could easily get in the finals of the SECT, but it would diminish the two wins over Florida, and it could hurt the SEC overall. Now, no one on here wants KY to win out, but we need them to (at least until we play them again).

As crazy as that sounds no matter what happens all the pundits hate the SEC. Announcers in the PAC 12 game last made rederence to how they were disrespected and how sorry the SEC is. Until the SEC beats the ACC in the tournament and the Big 10 it will be like that. Wichita State and Illinois State in the lowly Missouri Valley Conference get more respect.
The SEC in the old days put 6 or 7 teams in the tournament on a normal basis and advanced in the Dance! When we put teams in that don’t advance in hurts. Arkansas needs to make the seet 16 this year to get noticed. All SEC teams need to as far as that goes.
For these next 3 games we just need to win! So does Kentucky, South Carolina and Florida except when we play them.
We also need Vanderbilt to win out and Ole Miss! The SEC should land 6 teams in the Dance. Look at conference standings and take the time to look at common opponent which directly reflect to the SEC and you will see the SEC is actually truly competitive! RPI make a run of the mill Wichita State and Illinois State look a lot better than what they really are look at who they have played ! We need to play as many. In the future we need to play as many power 5 opponents as possible but we need to win those games. It’s hard to get a home and home with teams. No one really wants to come to the hill.
We will get in but the SEC has earned 6 teams to be included. Arkansas should not be considered a bubble team!

Ole Miss plays SCe (forecasted RPI if they win out is 58, and SOS is 58) - not sure they can get in unless they win the SECT
Vandy plays KY and FL. (Forecasted RPI if the win out 38, and SOS would be 1) - not sure they wouldn’t be in - but it also means FL loses 3 in a row to end the season, hurts our profile