Danny explained why the line went to AR+10 when he said a professional gambling group placed a “huge” bet on Auburn Sunday. It had to be a really, really large bet. Last night AR was the 3rd highest team in the country in % of wagered money being bet on them.
These percentages reflect only the on-line (off-shore) betting. link below:
Sunday night and early Monday morning the line dropped to AR+7.5 and then to +7 for a short while. I’m guessing that was the number the “pro group” was looking for. As the chart shows, AR is currently taking 81% of all the money bet on the AR/Aub game with the number at +9.5 & +10. I don’t understand how on-line and Vegas betting interact, other than the off-shore lines usually run very close to the Vegas lines.
If you click on the money movement chart (far right) you see that AR was taking 60% of the money even when the number reached +7. Last night AR was taking 83% of the money bet on the game. Normally on-line bettors are “small” bettors, at least compared to the pro group betters in Vegas. I found one off-shore site that had flagged our game with a “no bet over $1,000”. I wonder if the Vegas casinos who caught the pro group dollars on Auburn aren’t trying to lay off that money in off-shore sports books?
The whole thing seems really out of the norm. I can’t imagine how big that Auburn bet (probably spread over a dozen casinos) was for it to take over 4 days to even the money at a number probably double the “real” line. With the off-shore bettors taking AR in 81-83% of their bets, you can be pretty sure that individual bettors in Vegas are doing the same thing. Based on individual betting, it certainly seems clear that the real number should be around +4 to +6. That’s based on bettors still placing 60% of the dollars bet on AR at +7. I imagine there are several Vegas casinos hoping like heck that AR wins or at least covers 7.