The win tonight bumped us up from #30 to #27 at live-rpi.com. But by the end of the night, we’ll probably be back down to 28th. Why? Because two games involving past opponents are still in progress. Texas is beating TTech (good for us) but LSU is losing to SoCar. Although we play SoCar in two weeks, we haven’t yet, and we also play LSU twice to once for the Chickens.
Sure enough, by the time I finished typing this, we were already back down to #28 at live-rpi.
The NCAA website also had us #30 this morning; I would anticipate #28 there tomorrow as well. Live-rpi.com seems to be pretty close to the NCAA formula, unlike the ESPN version of RPI (although we were #29 there this morning, so not too far away).
Other metrics:
We went from 51st to 48th in Pomeroy. Bama is #61 now.
47th in Sagarin this morning (Bama was #59)
KPI #26 this morning (Bama was #53)
BPI #54 this morning (Bama was #59)
I noticed on ESPN, they’ll update at weird times. I believe you had posted something to Matt or Jimmy about them using ESPN. ESPN had us at like 6 or 7 spots higher in the RPI. Around noon, it had changed and we were pretty even, then within about 15-20 mins it changed again.
Yeah, ESPN does something a little different with their RPI formula that the NCAA and some of the other RPI sites don’t. Since the NCAA site is now updated daily, and that’s the official version/formula the committee sees, why not use it? Obviously, if you’re looking for live updates as I was last night, the NCAA list doesn’t work.
By the way, we’re still 28th at live-rpi.com as I type this, with no projected change in our number from games in progress. I don’t see anyone on our schedule that is playing now. NCAA also has us 28th, as I expected.
So if our rpi is top 30 now, surely we have some chance to rise to a 5 seed. if say we go 9-1 and upset Kentucky or Florida to reach sec championship game, I think that’s an easy top 5 seed. Even if we only win one in sec tourney but only lose twice more total, I would put our odds for a 5 seed at about 40% (assuming Florida and South Carolina stay in the top 20 before we get a chance to beat one of em)
First of all, a top 20 RPI does not necessarily mean a top 5 seed. But it doesn’t hurt either.
Second, top 20 ain’t likely. I went to rpiforecast.com, which is part of live-rpi.com’s site, and plugged in your 8-1 finish, beating the Chickens and losing at Florida. That would likely get our RPI to 21. Right now we’re fourth in the SEC (tied with Bama but head to head win over them). If we stay there, that would probably put us against Bama in the SECT quarters, UK in the semis and UF or SoCar in the finals if the SECT goes to form (which is rare). Plug in a win against Bama, a win against UK and a loss in the finals to the Gators and that only gets us to RPI 19. And that’s going 10-2 from here on. I think asking this team to go 10-2 from here out is a very tall order.
One variation: Winning at Florida and losing to the Chickens in the regular season would also be 19 RPI in this scenario. And running the regular season table, beating Bama and UK and losing to Florida in the final would be a 15 RPI. But in that case, an 11-1 finish would probably trump the RPI numbers and get us even a top 4 seed IMO. If you really want to dream big, running the table 12-0 with that SECT slate would get us to #11 RPI. And 27-5 with a 12 game streak probably would deserve top 3 seed.