According to BPI

Hogs have a 57.3% chance of making the second round of the Dance, 19.1% chance of the Sweet 16 and 6.2% chance of getting where we got last year.

However, I strongly suspect the odds one year ago of being in the EE were not as high as 6.2%. So there.

Chances of the natty? 0.1%. FF, 1.9%.

Also of note, Sagarin has us rated about dead even with Bama, and they are a 3-point pick for Saturday only because of home court. Pomeroy has us as a 5-point dog. Warren Nolan has us as a 1-point dog.

Looking at the Kenpom SEC only comparison numbers between us and Bama look like this.

Efficiency Arkansas Offense #5 vs Alabama Defense #12 and Alabama Offense #4 vs Arkansas Defense #1

Compare that to what the Auburn game was.
Efficiency Auburn Offense #1 vs Arkansas Defense #1 and Arkansas Offense #4 vs Auburn Defense #3

Those numbers are the ranking within the SEC. Between the Auburn game and the Alabama game our Offense dropped from #4 in the SEC to #5 in the SEC our defense stayed the same. Just looking at the individual metrics that make up that comparison, I like our chances at Alabama as long as we don’t have a major letdown. From past experience that is not something Muss’ teams have much of a problem.

1 Like

A good take on the Bama game, thanks. That gives me a little more confidence. I would love for us to have a game where we make over ten treys and force over fifteen turnovers.

All that’s good, except it omits Alabama on the road, instead of Auburn at home. I figure a tough venue this Saturday.

Yep, they are just numbers, but Muss’ approach tends to keep us away from the letdowns and we play well on the road. Add in that I’m an optimist and I think we’ve got a great shot. I’ll say the same thing that I said about Auburn, no matter what it will be a war. . we won’t back down. We may lose, but it won’t be from lack of battling or effort.


We had 8 treys and forced 19 last night. That worked.

I like our chances unless they get hot from beyond the arc.

If Bama turned the ball over 19 times I like our chances too! I don’t think blBa will
Out rebound the Hogs by 19 like Auburn did! I also look at 3 and if the Hogs match the 8 makes it should be enough if they play solid defense.
I’m anxious for the opening tip off.

This topic was automatically closed after 30 days. New replies are no longer allowed.