A little surprised by Sagarin ratings

Through all the years, the Sagarin ratings are the ones I’ve referenced more than any of the others when it came to objectively looking at results/SOS and rankings. I still feel that way.

I was surprised to see that Sagarin rates this Bowl game (against Penn State) a toss-up. Actually, his “predictor” numbers have us a TD underdog. But his “recent” ratings (showing how a team is trending in it’s last 3 or 4 games) has the two teams in a virtual tie.

For whatever reason, I hadn’t looked at those ratings in several weeks. I guess I was expecting an 8-4 SEC West team to rank above a 7-5 Big 10 team. And yet, SOS is relatively equal (according to Sagarin) - we have the 9th most difficult, PSU the 12th. So that’s a wash.

I guess that’s the result of having both Ohio State and Michigan in the top 4…plus Texas’ meltdown diminishing the impact of that win for us.

Game will still be played on the field…not a computer chip. Just found it a little surprising.

Penn State played 5 teams in the top 12 at the time of those games. We played 3 teams in the top 12. We each only won 1 of those games.

They played Michigan, Sparty and the Suckeyes, plus Auburn in NC. Reasonably comparable to ours, especially with the EOE nosedive.

ESPN FPI has PSU 14th at 13.0, us 29th at 9.0, and PSU has a 58.4% chance of winning according to them. They rate our offense as much better than theirs, but their defense as much better than ours. Special teams are essentially even.

And that’s another thing that caught me a little by surprise; a 6-6 Auburn being ranked ahead of us. Of course, they beat us head to head…but with 2 more losses, you generally don’t see that. However, their SOS is #2.

I don’t know if blowouts factor into things, but we got blown out by GA. We also lost by 2 scores to AU although the game was a bit closer than that score might indicate. PSU, on the other hand, played everyone pretty close.

I’m not surprised to see Penn St as a slight favorite.

Vegas currently has PSU as a 2.5 point favorite. It opened up as a 3.5-4 point favorite. The betting has trended toward the Hogs so far. It’s been steady yesterday and today at Hogs +2.5. I’d guess it will remain steady around 2.5 unless some major injury or a big name or 2 foregoes the bowl for NFL draft prep.

Not really comparable at all. They also played #3 Iowa and #12 Wisconsin. Which is why I said that they played 5 top 12 teams and we only played 3…

Except that our SOS is #1 and theirs is #9. Not very far apart and the separation is in our favor. Our strength of record is also better than theirs.

Will Burks leaving affect those odds? We know (or suspect) our season would have been totally different without him.

Probably. He’s most definitely a difference maker for us. If either QB was out, it would probably be at least a 3 point difference. Burks missing would probably get it back to the opening number of +3.5-4

Read something the other day that speculated PSU would have several people opt out, particularly on defense.

This topic was automatically closed after 30 days. New replies are no longer allowed.