A little bubble analysis

Not our women; they’re in.

LSU seems to have gotten us back in the bubble conversation. Not there yet, but on the radar.

We’re 3-5 against Q1 (LSU wound up Q2 barely but could go back to Q1 by the 15th) and 4-6 against Q2. No bad losses. NET 43. A&M will be a Q2 game. Given that everyone acknowledges that as a must win, if we do, that’s 8-11 against Q1-Q2 and a road/neutral record of 5-7.

By comparison with some other bubble teams as per Lunardi:

Xavier. NET 42. 7-7 away from home (AFH). 10-11 vs Q1-Q2.

Cincinnati. NET 50. 7-8 AFH. Four Q3 losses. 10-6 Q1-Q2.

Purdue is 9-13 against Q1-2 and has one Q3 loss. AFH is 5-10. Their last game Saturday is at home by the way.

Utah State. NET 38 as of Friday morning. 4-6 vs Q1-Q2 and two Q3 losses. 8-7 AFH thanks to a 4-1 neutral court mark. Their tournament is underway so everything from here out is neutral court.

SoCar. NET 60. Beat us at home, also beat Kentucky. 9-10 vs Q1-Q2 but has Q3 and Q4 losses. 6-7 AFH.

NC State. NET 59. 8-10 vs Q1-Q2. 4-2 vs Q3. 5-8 AFH.

Richmond. NET 45. 4-6 Q1-Q2. One Q3 loss. 9-5 AFH. One road game remaining Saturday.

Tiger High. NET 65. 6-6 AFH. 7-6 Q1-Q2. Three bad losses. I don’t think the committee is going to cut them any slack for losing a player due to being bought by Penny Hardaway.

Moo U. NET 52. Beat us twice. Two bad losses. If they get swept by Old Mrs that would look really bad. 8-9 Q1-Q2. 6-9 AFH

Rhode Island. NET 56. 8-6 AFH. Only one Q1 win, which is probably cancelled out by a Q4 loss.

Because I got a PM question, the NLR game is considered a home game. NCAA NET site lists our neutral record as 0-0.

What do you think the hogs need to do to dance?
Win at A&M plus 2 in the SEC tournament!

Not who you asked, but a few weeks ago I said I believed we needed 23 wins to be sure. I felt 22 would have us on the bubble, 21 would leave us out.

To get 21 - beat aTm, win 1 SECT
To get 22 - beat aTm, win 2 SECT (make semis)
To get 23 - beat aTm, win 3 SECT (make Finals)

Obviously, if we get to 24 we have the automatic bid.

I’m basing this off 2013 (the only year we’ve won 20 and didn’t dance). That year, every bracketologist said if we beat Bama (Final regular season game @Bama) or went 1-1 in SECT we’d be a lock. This is what we were that year on selection Sunday:

21-11, 10-9 SEC plus SECT, 4-9 road/neutral, 7-3 last 10, #67 RPI, #85 SOS, #7 ranked conference

This year (as of now):

18-11, 7-10, 4-7 road/neutral, 4-6 last 10, (#43 RPI, #22 SOS, #5 ranked conference - per Warren Nolan)

I have a feeling that regardless of whether we beat A&M or not, we have to get to the semis of SECT, to make into the tournament.

In other words, if we lose to A&M but make the semis, we are in.

I just don’t think 21 will get us in, especially when some bid stealing happens

I’m watching Wichita State @ Memphis right now and I’m hoping Memphis wins! These are both bubble teams but currently the shockers are shown in the dance by Lunardi. The results of other bubble teams is important too!
I just hope we can beat Texas A&M and go to the SEC tournament as the 10 seed! I don’t want the Wednesday game or the 8-9 seed!
Wichita State lost to Memphis.
Last team in Stanford got beat by Oregon State.
Texas now last team in!

I am thinking if we make the semis, we would have beaten either Kentucky or Auburn and that win will get our Net Ranking up to where they have to put us in.

I don’t think number of wins is as important as who we beat in SECT.

I hope you’re right

Wichita and Memphis are both basically bubble teams. Not sure which loss helps us more or hurts us more. Unfortunately they both couldn’t lose.

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