A couple of stats . . .

Anecdotally, I have felt that - despite our outstanding offensive numbers - we’ve still left an extraordinarily high number of men on base this year. Even when we put up a crooked number, we frequently leave a couple of men on. And there have been several innings where we put one or two on, but failed to score.

So, I looked at the current SEC baseball stats (for all games). Sure enough, we’re just a couple of runs behind two cellar dwellers - Miss. State and Alabama - for the most number of runners LOB so far this year. In trying to find a reason for that, I identified another statistic that also bore out something I had observed during the season - poor performance with the bases loaded. We are dead last in the conference with the bases juiced, hitting just .256 (compared to our .311 overall average). That is last by 22 points; the SEC average is .322, so we we are a good 60 points below average.

Also, our pinch-hitting is second from the bottom, at a paltry .167. Pinch hitters don’t always come to bat with runners on base, but that is frequently the case.

http://a.espncdn.com/sec/baseball/2018/ … 0Stats.pdf

There have been several games this year in which Arkansas has had double-digit runs and double-digit stranded runners.

Take the Auburn game last week, for example. Arkansas had 13 runs, but stranded 11. The Razorbacks stranded at least 10 every game and 31 total during the Kentucky series in which it scored 39 runs.

It shows me that Arkansas is not having a lot of three-up and three-down innings. They are getting on base at a good clip, .411 as a team. There are bound to be a number of LOBs when that is the case.

Good take on what looks like a bad statistic, Matt. I have no idea how to interpret the data Wiz brought. My knee jerk reaction is, “this is a weakness by the team.” However, you might be right, it’s more than offset by the number of men we’ve put on base.

I’ve never been particularly good at analyzing statistics in sports. Wiz is someone I’d almost always defer to because he appears to understand them very well. Still, I hope your take is the more telling one even though I’d still like to get those runners home more than we do.

Stranded runners have been an issue in some games this year, no doubt, but for the most part the offense is operating at an efficient rate. The LOBs are magnified in close losses, but several of those games included poor defensive play, too.

I don’t know what exactly this equates to, but using Wiz’s stats link, I compared runners left on base vs. runs scored, dividing the former by the latter. Arkansas is fourth behind Florida, Ole Miss and Kentucky, which are the only teams that have more runs than runners stranded.

Florida 0.92
Ole Miss 0.93
Kentucky 0.99
Arkansas 1.09
Georgia 1.11
Auburn 1.18
Missouri 1.25
South Carolina 1.25
Texas A&M 1.29
LSU 1.32
Vanderbilt 1.34
Alabama 1.44
Tennessee 1.50
Mississippi State 1.76

I’ll admit that I’m not completely sure what those numbers mean, either. Never really looked at such numbers and/or contemplated their impact before. Was simply curious about how many men we’d left on base, and found that stat sheet.

I will say that a robust offense is more likely to leave men on base than an anemic one. If you hardly ever get anyone on base, there just aren’t as many to be left on. And, I have never have doubted the overall “health”. ability and productivity of our offense.

At the same time, there is a frustration factor when there seem to be so many innings that we threaten but don’t score. That’s probably a feeling left over from the normal case, when you don’t get as many chances like that - so you’d better take advantage of them when they present themselves. We are blessed with an offense that, if it fails to score in 2 or 3 innings when it had a good chance to do so, still comes around and scores enough to make us one of the leaders in the country in that metric.

I also think men LOB stands out (in impression) because we’ve had so many bases loaded situations left on base. Those really sting, and are particularly frustrating. And we’ve had a lot of those, relatively speaking. It’s the one real area where this offense has under performed; but then, the overall at bats (when the bases are loaded) is a small, unrepresentative sample of our overall at bats. Perhaps that augers well, from a “regression to the mean” standpoint, for how we’ll do with the bags full during the last games of the season and post-season. I certainly hope so!

this a power hitting team and doesn’t really alter that approach even with 2 strikes and I think that and bad pitch selection and being to eager to hit it out of the park are why we are struggling with RISP.

I think the point is that according to these numbers we’re NOT struggling with RISP. Only three teams in the league are scoring more runners than they’re leaving on base, and we’re fourth best behind them. It’s like business: You gotta spend money to make money. I’d have to do the research (which I won’t) but I’d guess we’ve had a high number of multiple run innings this year that ended with two or three runners left on. I’ll take that all day and twice on Thursday … especially this Thursday.

It’s never a good feeling to leave runners on base without scoring in an inning. But it’s different if there’s a crooked number on the board and men are left on. That’s just bound to happen because a reliever will get his team out of an inning or the law of averages in baseball where failing 65-70% of the time at the plate makes for potential Hall of Famers.

Four times we had the bases loaded tonight; four times we did not get a hit, and got 0 runs off of those situations.

Probably THE most frustrating loss in a wonderful season (so far) whose only a cluster of ugly, never-should-have-happened 1 run losses in which we frittered away numerous opportunities to score/win the game.

Now, we face their ace tomorrow night. This becomes a huge ball game for us and the momentum we need to carry into the second half of the SEC schedule.

It’s always bothersome to leave the bases loaded, but it’s especially frustrating when the man on third got there with less than 2 outs. If there’s nobody on or maybe a runner on 1st with 2 outs that somehow gets to third on something like a pair of walks or a single followed by a walk, it’s not quite as frustrating. If a runner is standing on third base with no outs, it really sucks to leave them loaded & get no runs.

It looks like we’re not likely to play tomorrow night from what I’m seeing about the weather. I hate the idea of two 7 inning games Saturday & also hate having to wait until Saturday to get what I hope will be a win in the 2nd game.

I think there’s a decent chance we will play, based on the forecast I’m seeing. Maybe not all of the game - but you can bet if they can, they will get in as many innings as possible and then continue the game before Saturday’s finale IF they can’t finish tomorrow. There is a pretty constant threat of precipitation throughout the day, but it’s only about 30%. So, at any given time, it may or may not be raining, but it’s not a sure thing it will be. Even if it is, they can and do (as you know) play in the rain if it’s not a downpour, unless there is lightning in the area.

Of course, things can change dramatically in the next 15 hours. But as of now, I’d guess we’ll see some baseball tomorrow night. If we’re lucky, maybe they’ll play a couple of innings and then postpone to Saturday morning, wasting Carolina’s ace that is supposed to pitch tomorrow.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/fayet … 57?hour=30