4-4 Midway Through the SEC Schedule

Our Hogs are just 4-4 at the mid-way point. That’s where I thought they’d be at this stage. To get into the NCAA tourney, I feel the Hogs must win at least 5 of the next 8.

With Joe hobbled; he really looked hobbled yesterday (the Hogs were -19 during his 21 minutes), I’m thinking 5-3 is a stretch goal. However, the potential game changer was seen yesterday in Chaney’s play – it was very good on the road…and, he only had 1 turnover…

Perhaps lost in Mason’s and Chaney’s good performances was the 8 of 31 three point shooting by Bama (at their place; 26%). Good D by our guys.

Tuesday night’s game coming up is a must have. Gotta tame the Tigers.

Auburn ran the RB play on 1st and Goal and got fouls called on Kentucky to get that win! It’s comical to see the roles were reversed and Cal’s cats got a taste of their own medicine! There’s no defense played on the free throw line! That’s how Auburn, LSU, Miss St and Kentucky play!

I think if Arkansas gets to 21-9 and 9-9 at the end of the regular season they will be in due to the combination of early success, road wins and quad 1 wins.

That’s going 5 and 5 no matter how they get there.

But here’s my guess - which is 6-4 in the final 10 regular season games.

Auburn L
at Missouri W
at Tennessee L
Mississippi State W
at Florida L
Missouri W
Tennessee W
At Georgia W
at Texas A&M W

I have the same 6-4 finish. However I have 4 games different.

Beating Aub (they have a big letdown after KY win).
Losing @ MO (Hogs have a letdown after Aub win)
Beating LSU at home
Losing @ A&M (Hogs have a letdown after LSU win, and knowing they are in NCAAs).

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Dudley, not messing with you, but that’s 22-9 and 10-8. I think that gets us in as well. 9-9 in conference would put us at 21-10. I think that might get us in, but I think they’ll be sweating on selection Sunday.

Dudley’s first 2 paragraphs are referring to the 5-5 finish. The last paragraph and his list is referring to 1 more win and going 6-4 (22 wins) instead of 5-5.

I understood, but he said 9-9 would put us at 21-9, we play 31 games. He’s missing a game

We either have to be 21-10, or 22-9

By the way, I agree with him, I think we finish at least 6-4 (makes us 22-9)

If you tally the best three wins in the Massey Composite Computer poll, Arkansas is currently 67th with most of the teams ahead of them being in power conferences. They are 47th in worst three losses. There will be a ton of teams in the power conferences that will be +/- 2 relative to .500 in conference this season. The bubble is going to be a mess. Arkansas can get five more wins against the bottom half of the SEC. That may not be good enough. Losing to any of those teams in the bottom half except Vandy and A&M probably won’t hurt them, especially on the road, but they need wins again the top four or five. If Indiana collapses, Arkansas’ current wins could look very soft. Arkansas needs a statement win or two from here out to feel real comfortable.

Correction: The quoted numbers were as of Thursday when I tabulate statistics for all teams every week. The Alabama win will move Arkansas up in wins. Still, as pointed out, Bama’s prospects are questionable without Jones. A statement win is still highly desirable to be bubble proof.

Tuesday is the halfway mark of the SEC schedule, but close enough.

As for Bama, they have the firepower to beat some people without Jones, but it doesn’t make their task any easier for sure.

I continue to think 22 wins will be safe and 21 with what we did in NC is probably safe. NET numbers will remain close to where they are now if we win 21 or 22; improve some if we do better or if we steal a road win at Knoxville or Gainesville or both.

Eagle eye, Jeff.

I’ve said since our great start we are dancin’ this year…be interesting to see how many get in and how the SEC does…highest rated team by Pomeroy is LSU at 32, followed by Auburn, Arkansas, Miss St, and Kentucky, 33,34,35,36. Underrated?

I recognize facts are unpopular around here and a lot of other places, but someone needs to take a stand for accurate information.

The big danger for Arkansas is falling on to the bubble and then having head-to-head resume checks with other bubblicious power conference teams. Currently Arkansas has one win over a team that will get an at-large bid. That being Indiana, who could easily fall into the NIT. A few teams in the Big 10 are going to fold. Tulsa could help by continuing to win. However, at present Arkansas doesn’t have a single win over a team that is certainly going to finish in the top half of a power conference unless you consider the American a power conference. A lot of wins at home over a bunch of small mid-major conference champions who must win their tourney to dance isn’t going win many tie-breakers. Arkansas could remedy that with a win over LSU, Auburn, UK(SECT), or maybe MSU. They need a win to validate the good computer numbers in order to be safe. The right 5 wins would have them in easily.

Not sure who you include in some people, but Jones does not supply the firepower to Bama. As a whole Bama is not a good defensive team, but Jones is a star defender and they put him on the opponent’s biggest threat on the wing and he usually does his job. Without Herbert Jones, Bama could not stop Mason Jones and Arkansas offense at crunch time.

Hopefully they will get him back soon and keep their Net rating.

Jones is a 10 point a game guy so not insignificant, but my point is the other guys can score enough in many cases to make up for the defensive lapses in his absence. I’m glad we got them first before Oats had a chance to fix their defense without him.

I wouldn’t say we are “Just” 4-4. We are ahead of where many predicted us. I do agree on Chaney…and would add Harris as improved players. I disagree that AU is a must have. However, it would be an awesome win and help in so many ways. One game at a time. We’ve lost a few SEC games we shouldn’t have. A win tomorrow night helps correct that. We play 18 games now in conference, not 16. We have 10 remaining. I think winning 5 is enough to get in. 6-4 would be awesome.

And all you guys are wrong, because we have SECT, which will likely give us 1 more loss unless we win it.

I just hope this team doesn’t start trying to work a math problem like this board is. Bottom line is unless we implode, we are in the dance. .500 down the stretch is enough to get in.

I think we will have to do better than 500 down the stretch. And I didn’t forget the SECT, we were talking regular season. I already posted a few weeks ago, we need 23 wins prior to selection Sunday (counting SECT)

The SECT isn’t that big a factor right now–or at least it shouldn’t be. Every team but one that gets in will lose a game. I doubt anybody thinks we’ll win it, although we are good enough that if everyone is healthy & we get an opening bye, I could see us doing it.

I’m not sure how many games we’ll have to win in the regular season to get into the NCAA without an SECT win, but I’d bet a 10-8 record gets us in even if we went 0-1 in the SECT. We all know every win helps and we’d all like something better than an 8 seed. None of us want to face a 1 seed if we do happen to win the first game. (I’d rather be an 11 or 12 seed than an 8 seed in terms of having a chance of getting 2 NCAA wins. Those 1 seeds are tough to beat. The 4-6 seeds are bit more manageable.) Regardless, we’re getting way ahead of ourselves. We’re not in the tournament yet, but I do like our chances since we beat Bama. It’d sure be nice if Joe got healthy, but I don’t know if that’s possible between now & early March.

The hogs loss at WKY and LSU hurt at this point. Those 2 games would have made a big difference. LSU would have been a Q-1 win. Maybe the hogs can find some magic these last 10 games.
How ever this season shakes out they have over achieved!