The teams in front of us, in order:
last 5 Seed: San Diego State
6 Seed: Creighton, TCU, Northwestern, Illinois
7 Seed: Maryland, Michigan St, A&M, Duke
8 Seed: Providence, Kentucky, Arkansas, Iowa (for an “and one”).
Note the B1G logjam around us. The right combination of losses and UA wins could move us up, but I am not smart enough to look at the metrics to know who to root for, and when/where. It would seem two UA wins and no major collapses from “in” SEC teams would help us a lot, building the conference metrics. Then, having a couple of these fizzle would sure help. Duke being this high surprises, but then again, it doesn’t.
Dook is #24 in NET, #34 in Pomeroy, has 21 wins but is worse than we are against Q1 (2-7 to our 3-7). Aggies have moved into the NET top 30 so the win at BWA is now Q1.
It wouldn’t shock me if we’re seeded better than Dook, but it also wouldn’t shock me if they’re above us, because, well, they’re Dook. But our metrics are consistently better than theirs except for SOR, where they’re 28 to our 35. It does not help them that the ACC sucks this year; it’s the worst Power 6 league again. Which is not to say that they can’t have two teams in the Final Four just like last year but the numbers don’t support that.
Same applies to the SEC. You can’t have two SEC teams play each other before the Elite Eight unless we get nine teams in, which we won’t get unless Vandy wins the SECT or something. So two SEC 8 seeds and two SEC 9 seeds would be problematic. I guess you could distribute those across the four regions but probably easier to bump somebody up or down a line.
If we win 6 straight to close out the season, 4 of which would be a neutral floor, the committee would have a strong case, and likely be justified to give us a top 16 spot, with our NET. That’s a lot to expect though, but mathematically possible.
It’s ALL about matchups once you get in The Dance.
I’m not freaking out about being an 8/9 seed, particularly if our 1 is Purdue.
If we can play Murder U and Baylor within 3 points on their home floors, we can play with, and beat, anyone on a neutral floor.
Guards win Tourney games, and we’ve got 4 dandies.