To break them down, KPI, NET and SOR are results-based metrics, looking back on what you’ve already done. BPI, Kenpom, Sagarin and Torvik are predictive metrics; they attempt to forecast what will happen in the future.
Bracket Matrix hasn’t updated since Tuesday; still an 8 seed there.
I know jeremy and some others are not fans of the SEC tourney…but THIS year I think its paramount we make a deep run. Because these numbers don’t match where the bracketologists are placing us. We are being underestimated.
We need some big wins. Let’s say we win 2 of the next 3…then make a run to Sunday in the SEC tourney.
I would HOPE that would result in a 5 seed. At least. Am I wrong?
Hard to say. The Matrix, which tends to be pretty close because the sheer number of brackets eliminates outliers/people who don’t have a clue, has us at #31 today. We’d have to jump over 11 teams to get a 5 seed. Would beating Tennessee, Kentucky and getting to Saturday in the SECT do it? Maybe, with some help from others.
Thanks Swine. Looking at some of the teams ahead of us makes me think of how the losses to LSU, Missouri, A&M and Baylor really killed us in these type metrics. Maybe we only win two of those, we would probably be ranked and being talked about as a 5/6 seed.
Winning all three would. But TN and Kentucky have their blemishes. Just beating those two could be discounted. I agree with the popular opinion that the conference tourney just can’t move the needle much for March madness seeding. Maybe there’s potential to jump 3-4 team to move up 1 seed. I think the major factor here for the selection committee is the addition to our personnel with nick smith. If we prove we are a different team on a major hot streak with nick back, then they will take notice. But we have to win, and not just some of them. We are certainly capable of winning out if NSJ is the real deal and we stay healthy
Not really. Well, losing to LSU was bad, but we went to Red Stick right before they went in the tank. They were still good in December, then crashed. Vandy and Moo U hurt; they’re both Q2 losses. A&M, Misery and Bayluh are Q1; they expect you to lose some Q1s, especially on the road. Would it have been better to win a couple of those? Sure, but the losses aren’t crippling.
Kansas is 13-5 against Q1. Eighteen of their 28 games. My guess is that’s some kind of record, due to how damn good the Little Dozen is. Their worst loss is to #24 TCU. And of course, with those five Q1 losses they’re projected as a 1 seed.
But anyway, getting back to your point, the games that hurt us were LSU, Moo U and Vandy.
Last year we wound up 8-7 against Q1; of course that included Gonzaga and Dook in the Dance, so 7-6 regular season. We have three Q1 games left, plus whatever in the SECT, so we could get to 6-6 by the 4th and then whatever happens in Nashville on top of that.
Speaking of Nashville, we’re tied for 6th now with Misery and Vandy, one game behind Tennessee and Auburn who are tied for fourth. Top four get byes into Friday. If we run the table, we’ll at least catch Tennessee (who we will have beaten). We’ll have losses to Vandy and Auburn and a split with Misery. Could be a huge tiebreaker mess to figure out who gets that last bye. But I see no way we get that bye without running the table.
Yep. If we’d lost to them in Stankvomit, or lose to them in Nashville, it would be Q1.
The Leghumpers are #42 in NET, and their best metric (referring to above) is BPI at #39. Which is bubblicious as heck. They have a good neutral court win over Marquette, otherwise their best win is us. Also beat TCU in the Challenge in Stankvomit. That’s two pretty good NC wins, and I can see them getting in, but not much margin for error. They probably need to beat the Aggies Saturday.
BPI is still 13 though. NET is 14. Sagarin 12, Pomeroy 15, and KPI is 14.
Reminder that KPI and SOR are result-based metrics; they look back at what you’ve already done. Kenpom, Sagarin and BPI are predictive; they’re looking ahead at future performances, and we’re in good shape in all of those, in spite of that stinker last night (I literally went to bed before halftime; I was tired and I saw no reason to delay my sleep for another hour of torture).
We have really been spoiled the last couple of seasons with the Elite Eight finishes. Now it’s somewhat expected and this team is not that caliber. We may have to settle for a first or second round exit and realize the future looks bright and Final Fours are around the corner.
Does anyone know (Swine I’m talking to you) when we beat a team, does our metrics change for the rest of the year depending on how that team does or does it stay the same as where they were the night we beat them? Example, we beat someone in December that’s ranked number 1 in every poll and metric. They have a key injury in January and slowly disappear from the rankings, does us beating them still carry the weight of the night we beat them?
I think that depends. NET would probably change, although nobody knows the actual formula. SOR would definitely change. Pomeroy wouldn’t; it’s based on offensive and defensive efficiencies which are there whether we played Kansas or UAPB, although those efficiencies are adjusted according to the efficiencies of the teams we played. So if Creighton had completely gone in the tank after we lost to them in Maui, instead of going in the tank for a few weeks while their big recovered from mononucleosis, that would probably be reflected slightly in our numbers. But given that we have played 26 different teams (with 5 twice, including Kentucky on Saturday), the effect of one given opponent, good or bad, is reduced. I think BPI, Sagarin and Torvik also would not change much if at all.